GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?

Name: Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?
End: 2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$114.68K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?

Vol

$114.68K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $114.68K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $114.68K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?	Poly	12%
Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by July 31?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

12%

Top Probability

$114.68K

Volume

Markets

2.2%

Price Gap

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2026

If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House has resigned or otherwise left their leadership office after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House will leave the position also resolves to Yes. If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House leaves office solely because they have passed away, that outcome does not resolve to Yes. This market will close 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House has resigned or otherwise left their leadership office after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An announcement that the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House will leave the p"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.17)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (1 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Mike Johnson out as Speaker by July 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $724
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

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Rules

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Timing

Similar

KALSHIPolitics

Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?

Before 2026 If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House has resigned or otherwise left their leadership office after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House will leave the position also resolves to Yes. If the person occupying the position of Speaker of the House leaves office solely because they have passed away, that outcome does not resolve to Yes. This market will close

Volume$0.00

Markets1

POLYMARKETPolitics