Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?

Name: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?
End: 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.16K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?

Vol

$1.16K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.16K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.16K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?	Poly	99%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 12?	Poly	95%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 12?	Poly	93%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 12?	Poly	92%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 12?	Poly	90%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 12?	Poly	43%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $785 on October 12?	Poly	8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $795 on October 12?	Poly	7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on October 12?	Poly	4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $805 on October 12?	Poly	1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $800 on October 12?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$1.16K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 12, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $805 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $78
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $800 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $104
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $795 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $785 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $665
  DATA: [Yes: 8.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $108
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 93.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.6% (0.0%)]

### 9. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 92.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $75
  DATA: [Yes: 98.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?

Volume$1.16K

Markets11

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POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 98.8¢No 1.2¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published

POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 94.5¢No 5.4¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 12?

POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 93.4¢No 6.6¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 12?

POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 92.3¢No 7.8¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 12?

POLYMARKET

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 12?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 12?

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Next Market Closes

Calculating time remaining…

Oct 12, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

48¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/lasIqq" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?"></iframe>

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S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?

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S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?

Markets (11)

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 12?

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Discussion

Next Market Closes

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 12?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 12?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

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