GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?

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When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?

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When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)	Kalshi	86%
When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before October 2027)	Kalshi	82%
When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before July 2027)	Kalshi	72%
Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027? (Before Mar 1, 2027)	Kalshi	48%
Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)	Kalshi	31%

AI Analysis

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COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression

If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027? (Before Mar 1, 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before October 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before July 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?

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KALSHI

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIHealth

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)

If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before October 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.5¢No 18.5¢

KALSHIHealth

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before October 2027)

If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before July 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KALSHIHealth

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before July 2027)

If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027? (Before Mar 1, 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027? (Before Mar 1, 2027)

If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?

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When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)

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Events (1)

When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?

Markets (5)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before October 2027)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before October 2027)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before July 2027)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before July 2027)

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027? (Before Mar 1, 2027)

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027? (Before Mar 1, 2027)

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

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When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)

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When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before 2028)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before October 2027)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before October 2027)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before July 2027)

When will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression? (Before July 2027)

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027? (Before Mar 1, 2027)

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Mar 1, 2027? (Before Mar 1, 2027)

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Will the FDA approve COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression before Jan 1, 2027? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

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