$27.97K
1
6
$27.97K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius
Prediction markets currently give about a 1 in 3 chance that the global average temperature for March 2026 will be between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC above the pre-industrial baseline. This means traders collectively see it as more likely that the temperature anomaly will fall outside that specific narrow band. The most probable single outcome, based on the full set of markets, is an increase greater than 1.2ºC. In simple terms, the market is leaning toward another very warm month, consistent with recent trends.
Two main factors are shaping these odds. First, the broader climate context is one of sustained warming. The past ten months in a row, from June 2023 through March 2024, each set a new global heat record for that respective month. While an El Niño event boosted recent temperatures, the underlying trend from greenhouse gas emissions continues to push the baseline higher.
Second, March is a significant month for climate watchers. It often shows a strong temperature spike because it follows the boreal winter, when ocean heat absorbed during the previous summer can influence atmospheric readings. The market’s skepticism about the 1.15-1.19ºC range likely stems from the fact that March 2024 already hit an anomaly of about 1.68ºC. Even with some natural variability, traders may expect 2026 to remain well above the 1.2ºC mark, not dip back into the high 1.1s.
The main event is the data release from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), expected around mid-April 2026. This report will provide the official Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index number that resolves the market.
Before that, the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will be a major signal. A shift toward a La Niña phase by 2026 could have a temporary cooling effect, while a neutral or renewed El Niño state would support higher temperatures. Monthly climate reports from agencies like NOAA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service throughout late 2025 and early 2026 will give traders clues about whether the planet is continuing its record-hot streak.
Prediction markets are generally effective at aggregating diverse information, but long-term climate forecasts involve significant uncertainty. Markets are better at forecasting near-term, discrete events like elections. For a climate metric two years out, the prediction incorporates current scientific understanding and recent trends, but it cannot account for unforeseen volcanic eruptions or sudden changes in atmospheric or oceanic cycles. The modest amount of money wagered here also suggests lower confidence and less information than in highly traded political markets. View this as a snapshot of informed sentiment based on today’s knowledge, not a precise scientific forecast.
Prediction markets assign a 32% probability to the global temperature anomaly for March 2026 falling between 1.15°C and 1.19°C above the pre-industrial baseline. This price indicates traders view this specific outcome as unlikely, but not negligible. The highest probability segment is the 1.20°C to 1.24°C bracket, trading near 45%. The market structure shows a clear expectation that March 2026 will be warmer than 1.15°C, with over 70% of the probability mass distributed across outcomes at or above that threshold. Total market liquidity is thin at $28,000, so these odds can be volatile.
The pricing reflects two primary climate and market dynamics. First, the established warming trend is the baseline. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) data shows the last 10 March months have all had anomalies above 1.0°C, with March 2023 and March 2024 both exceeding 1.3°C. A forecast near 1.2°C is consistent with this ongoing trend, slightly tempered by natural variability. Second, the current strong El Niño conditions are a major short-term driver. Historical data indicates global temperature anomalies typically peak during or just after an El Niño phase. By March 2026, the climate system will likely be in a neutral or La Niña state, which traders may be pricing in as a modest cooling influence relative to 2023-2024 peaks.
The 40-day window until resolution leaves the market exposed to new data and model runs. The most immediate catalyst will be the final February 2026 temperature reading and early March observational data from agencies like NOAA. A significantly warmer or cooler February than expected could shift probabilities across all brackets. A second factor is the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies. If the current record-high ocean heat content does not dissipate as some models project, it would pressure forecasts upward, making the 1.20°C-1.24°C or higher brackets more probable. A sudden shift in aerosol emissions from volcanic activity could also disrupt the current consensus.
The low trading volume across these markets is a critical caveat. With only $28,000 in total bets, the quoted odds are less robust and more susceptible to distortion from a few large trades. This illiquidity means current prices may not fully aggregate informed opinion. They primarily reflect the views of a small number of active participants rather than a deep market consensus. For researchers, this market is more a signal of trader attention on climate metrics than a highly confident probabilistic forecast.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the March 2026 Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index anomaly, a key metric for tracking global warming. The index, maintained by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), measures the deviation of Earth's average surface temperature from a baseline period, typically 1951-1980. For March 2026, the market will resolve based on the initial reported value in hundredths of a degree Celsius, regardless of subsequent revisions. This specific monthly snapshot provides a data point within the broader trend of climate change, offering a near-term target for climate model projections and policy assessments. Interest in this particular month stems from its position as the final March before the midpoint of the 2020s, a period many climate agreements use for interim progress checks. The value will be scrutinized against the backdrop of ongoing El Niño or La Niña conditions, which can significantly influence short-term global temperatures. Market participants and observers use such contracts to gauge expert consensus on near-future climate outcomes, translating scientific forecasts into probabilistic financial instruments. The outcome contributes to public understanding of whether warming is accelerating, stabilizing, or progressing as projected by major climate agencies.
The NASA GISS surface temperature analysis began in the early 1980s under Dr. James Hansen, providing a continuous record now spanning over four decades. The baseline period of 1951-1980 was chosen as it represents a pre-rapid-warming climate state. March temperatures have shown a clear warming trend. For example, the March anomaly in 1983 was +0.31°C, while by 2023 it reached +1.23°C, according to GISS data. The record for the warmest March in the dataset was set in 2016 at +1.34°C, coinciding with a strong El Niño event. The year 2020 also saw an exceptionally warm March at +1.19°C. These historical precedents are critical for understanding whether a March 2026 value is unprecedented or follows established patterns linked to natural variability and long-term warming. The dataset has undergone several methodological refinements, such as improved ocean temperature interpolation and urban heat island effect adjustments, which are documented in peer-reviewed literature. Past revisions to monthly values, though typically small (often ±0.01-0.03°C), underscore why the prediction market contract specifies resolution on the initially reported value.
Monthly temperature anomalies are leading indicators for annual climate outcomes, which have direct economic consequences. A significantly warm March 2026 could signal an increased likelihood of extreme heat events later in the year, affecting agriculture, energy demand for cooling, and public health systems. Insurance and reinsurance companies monitor these figures to adjust risk models for weather-related disasters. Politically, a high monthly anomaly can intensify pressure on governments to implement or strengthen climate policies, especially if it contributes to a record-warm year. The data point feeds into assessments of progress toward international goals like the Paris Agreement's aim to limit warming well below 2°C. For scientists, the March 2026 value is a test for climate models. If observed temperatures consistently exceed model projections for this period, it could indicate a need to revise climate sensitivity estimates or a faster-than-expected response to greenhouse gas forcing.
As of early 2025, climate forecasting centers are beginning to issue preliminary outlooks for 2026. The multi-year La Niña event that persisted through much of the early 2020s has transitioned, and forecasts suggest neutral or potentially El Niño-developing conditions by early 2026. The latest annual data for 2024 confirmed it as another record-warm year, continuing a streak that began in 2014. This establishes a high baseline from which the 2026 climate will start. NASA GISS continues to update its temperature dataset with the latest observations and methodological improvements. The specific procedures for processing March 2026 data will follow established protocols, with initial results typically released in the second week of April 2026.
It is a measure of the change in Earth's average surface temperature from a defined baseline period (1951-1980). It combines land surface air temperatures and sea surface temperatures from thousands of weather stations, ships, and buoys into a single global number expressed as an anomaly in degrees Celsius.
Using the first reported value ensures a clear, objective, and timely resolution. The GISS dataset is occasionally revised months or years later as more complete data arrives or methods improve. The market contract eliminates ambiguity by fixing the resolution moment to the first public data release.
NASA GISS publishes the data on its website, typically in a monthly update page and an accessible text table titled 'GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius'. The data is also disseminated via NASA's climate news releases and data portals.
NASA GISS estimates the uncertainty for monthly global means at about 0.05°C. This uncertainty arises from gaps in station coverage, especially in polar regions and oceans, and the statistical methods used to create a globally complete average from sparse observations.
Natural climate variability, primarily from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, volcanic eruptions that inject sunlight-blocking aerosols into the stratosphere, and solar cycle variations can all move global temperature up or down in any given month, superimposing on the long-term human-caused warming trend.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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