This prediction market addresses whether former President Donald Trump will successfully negotiate and implement a new free trade agreement that becomes law before January 20, 2029, should he win the 2024 presidential election. The question centers on Trump's trade policy agenda for a potential second term, which he has signaled would be a central focus. During his first administration from 2017 to 2021, Trump pursued an 'America First' trade policy, renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and initiating a trade conflict with China. He has consistently criticized multilateral trade deals and advocated for bilateral agreements that he argues better protect American workers and industries. Interest in this topic stems from the significant economic and geopolitical implications of U.S. trade policy, affecting global supply chains, inflation, diplomatic relations, and domestic manufacturing. Observers are analyzing Trump's campaign rhetoric, his advisors' statements, and the political feasibility of passing new trade deals through Congress to gauge the likelihood of this outcome.

Historical Context

Modern U.S. presidential authority to negotiate trade agreements stems from the Trade Act of 1974 and subsequent renewals of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), also known as 'fast-track' authority. TPA, last granted in 2015 and expired in 2021, allows the President to negotiate deals that Congress can approve or reject but not amend, streamlining the process. Historically, major agreements like NAFTA (1994) and the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA, 2005) were passed this way. Donald Trump's first term marked a significant departure from decades of bipartisan support for trade liberalization. He withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on his third day in office in 2017, calling it a 'rape of our country.' His administration then focused on renegotiating NAFTA, culminating in the USMCA, which passed Congress with bipartisan support and was signed into law in January 2020. Simultaneously, Trump initiated a trade war with China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, resulting in tariffs on approximately $370 billion of Chinese imports and a limited 'Phase One' trade deal signed in January 2020. This history demonstrates Trump's preference for bilateral negotiations and confrontational tactics over multilateral frameworks.

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