Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?

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$2.41K

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When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?

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$2.41K

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $2.41K

100%

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3 markets tracked

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	45%
Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	26%
Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

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$2.41K

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About This Event

Federal AI catastrophic-risk duty of care If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or equivalent precautions, to prevent or mitigate catastrophic harm from their models or systems. This means large-scale harm such as mass casualties, major disruption of critical infr

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Federal AI catastrophic-risk duty of care

If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or equivalent precautions, to prevent or mitigate catastrophic harm from their models or systems. This means large-scale harm such as mass casualties, major disruption of critical infr

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or e"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2027): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?

Volume$2.41K

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or e

KALSHI

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.0¢No 74.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?

If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or e

KALSHI

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?

If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or e

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When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?

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Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

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Events (1)

When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?

Markets (3)

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jul 1, 2027?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2027?

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