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$724.81K
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Y
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will leave Iran by a specified deadline. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if credible confirmation emerges that he has physically departed Iranian territory and arrived in another country. The question reflects intense speculation about the political future of Iran's ruling establishment and potential power struggles. Mojtaba Khamenei is a significant but opaque figure within Iran's political and security apparatus. He holds no official government title but is widely reported by analysts and foreign intelligence agencies to wield considerable influence behind the scenes, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and among conservative clerical factions. Interest in his movements stems from his perceived role as a potential successor to his father, who is 85 years old and has faced health issues. The possibility of his departure from Iran could signal several scenarios, including a preemptive exile amid internal instability, a strategic retreat during a leadership transition, or simply routine travel that becomes politically charged. International media and regional observers monitor his status closely as an indicator of the regime's stability.
The question of succession in the Islamic Republic has been a persistent theme since the death of its founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1989. The transition to Ali Khamenei was managed swiftly by a small cadre of elites, establishing a precedent for a behind-the-scenes process. The role of family members in Iranian politics, while officially downplayed, has historical precedent. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president, saw his children become powerful business figures, and the current system includes several political families. The concept of a hereditary or dynastic element in the theocratic system is controversial and contradicts some revolutionary ideals, making it a sensitive topic. The 2009 Green Movement protests, which were brutally suppressed, highlighted deep public dissatisfaction and raised questions about long-term regime stability. Since then, periodic waves of protest, including the nationwide demonstrations following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, have increased scrutiny on the regime's resilience and the potential for elite fragmentation during a crisis. The sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in 2024 is the most recent event to inject uncertainty into the leadership landscape, reminding observers of the potential for abrupt change.
The potential departure of Mojtaba Khamenei from Iran matters because it would be interpreted as a major signal about the stability of the regime's core. If he were to leave, it could indicate that key insiders perceive an imminent threat, such as a violent power struggle, a popular uprising they believe could succeed, or a severe internal purge. This could trigger panic among other elites, potentially leading to capital flight or defections. For regional security, instability at the top in Iran could affect its proxy networks across the Middle East, its nuclear negotiations, and its confrontations with adversaries like Israel and the United States. Domestically, confirmation of his exit could embolden opposition groups and demoralize security forces loyal to the existing structure, potentially altering the trajectory of Iran's political future. The event would be analyzed for years as a potential turning point.
As of late 2024, there is no publicly verifiable evidence that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran. He maintains an extremely low public profile, with no official schedule or confirmed appearances outside the country. Speculation about his movements and security typically increases following events that destabilize the political environment, such as the death of President Raisi in May 2024 or during periods of heightened protest activity. International news agencies and open-source intelligence monitors continue to track reports, but his confirmed whereabouts remain within Iran. The prediction market exists to aggregate beliefs about the probability of a future, confirmable event based on the perceived risk and instability within the ruling system.
Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He is a mid-ranking cleric who is widely believed by regional analysts and foreign governments to exercise significant informal influence within Iran's security and political establishments, particularly with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
There is no formal prohibition, but his succession would be highly controversial. The position is meant for a high-ranking cleric, and a direct familial succession would contradict some of the republic's ideological foundations. His candidacy would depend on backroom support from powerful institutions like the IRGC and the Assembly of Experts.
No direct family member of a sitting Supreme Leader has ever held a major elected or appointed executive office in Iran. Influence has typically been exercised informally. This norm makes Mojtaba Khamenei's behind-the-scenes role notable but also sensitive.
Potential reasons analysts cite include fleeing perceived physical danger during a power struggle, exiting ahead of a potential popular revolution the regime might lose, or being forced into exile by rival factions within the elite who block his path to power.
Confirmation would likely come from multiple credible sources, such as visual evidence from a foreign airport, reporting from a major intelligence agency, or a statement from a government that has granted him entry or asylum. Iranian state media would almost certainly deny or ignore such an event initially.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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