Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture
The Actor Awards Winner: Best Supporting Actor - Film
Total Volume
$6.76K
Events
1
Markets
7
The Actor Awards Winner: Best Supporting Actor - Film
Vol
$6.76K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
7
$6.76K
1
7
$6.76K
1
7
7 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 39% |
| Poly | 27% |
| Poly | 26% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor wins the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture, otherwise it will resolve to "N
Prediction markets currently assign Michael Shannon a 79% implied probability of winning the 2026 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series. This price, trading at 79¢ on Polymarket, indicates the market views his victory as the clear favorite. A probability this high suggests analysts see his win as very likely, though not a foregone certainty, given the competitive nature of awards shows. The total market volume is relatively thin at approximately $4,000, which can sometimes lead to more volatile price swings on new information.
The primary driver is Shannon's acclaimed lead performance in the limited series Nine Perfect Strangers, which has generated significant awards season buzz for its intensity and critical reception. Historically, the SAG Awards have often aligned with both critical consensus and precursor awards from groups like the Hollywood Critics Association. Shannon's status as a respected veteran actor with prior nominations but no SAG win in this category creates a compelling narrative that often influences voting patterns. The current odds likely reflect early industry polling and expert commentary positioning him as the frontrunner in a field where no other contender has yet generated equivalent momentum.
The major near-term catalyst is the official nomination announcement on January 7, 2026. Should Shannon fail to secure a nomination, the contract would resolve to "No." However, the greater risk is the emergence of a strong competitor from a late-breaking limited series or TV movie that captures industry attention between now and the final voting window in February 2026. Another factor is potential vote-splitting in a crowded field, which could allow a dark horse candidate to win with a lower plurality. The market's thin liquidity means any significant news or precursor award result (like a Critics Choice Award win for another actor) could cause a sharp, immediate adjustment in the trading price.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of the Best Supporting Actress category at the 32nd Actor Awards, scheduled for March 1, 2026. The market specifically resolves based on whether a designated performer, referred to as 'X', wins the award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role. This award is one of the most prestigious honors in the film industry, presented by the Screen Actors Guild‐American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG‐AFTRA) to recognize exceptional acting in a supporting film role from the previous calendar year. The market will close following the awards ceremony, or earlier if X is not nominated when nominations are announced, typically in January 2026. The interest in this market stems from the award's significant influence on Oscar campaigns, its reflection of industry peer recognition, and the competitive landscape of each awards season. Analysts and enthusiasts closely follow precursor awards like the Actor Awards to gauge frontrunners for the Academy Awards. The 2026 ceremony will be the 32nd edition of the event, continuing its tradition of being a key indicator of cinematic excellence and a major televised event in the entertainment calendar. The market allows participants to speculate on the consensus building around a particular performance months before the ceremony, based on film release schedules, critical reception, and early festival buzz.
The Actor Awards, originally known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, were first presented in 1995 to honor outstanding performances in film and television. The award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role has been presented annually since that inaugural ceremony. Historically, winning this award has been a strong predictor of success at the Academy Awards, with a significant correlation between the two. For instance, from 1995 to 2024, the SAG Award winner in this category went on to win the Oscar 22 times, demonstrating a predictive accuracy of approximately 73%. The awards are unique because they are voted on solely by actors, making them a pure measure of peer recognition within the industry. In 2023, the ceremony was rebranded from the 'SAG Awards' to the 'Actor Awards' to better reflect the unified identity of SAG‐AFTRA members. The 31st ceremony in 2025 continued this new naming convention. Past winners form a roster of Hollywood's most respected talents, including Viola Davis, Lupita Nyong'o, and Ariana DeBose. The award's history is also marked by its role in highlighting diverse performances and often correcting perceived oversights from other awards bodies, solidifying its importance in the awards ecosystem.
The outcome of this award has substantial implications beyond honoring an individual performance. Winning the Actor Award for Best Supporting Actress can dramatically alter an actress's career trajectory, leading to higher salary demands, more prominent role offers, and greater industry leverage. For the winning film, it provides a powerful marketing tool, often boosting box office returns for theatrical releases or increasing viewership on streaming platforms. The award also carries significant economic weight for the studios and distributors involved, as an awards campaign is a multi‐million dollar investment with the expectation of tangible returns in prestige and revenue. On a broader cultural level, the award and its nominations reflect and influence industry conversations about representation, artistic merit, and the types of stories being celebrated. The choices made by SAG‐AFTRA's large and diverse membership are seen as a barometer of the acting community's values and priorities, making the result a topic of analysis for trends in filmmaking and performance.
As of late 2024, the field for the 2026 Actor Awards is entirely open. Films eligible for consideration are those with a scheduled theatrical release or qualifying streaming release in the 2025 calendar year. Major studios are in the early stages of planning their 2025 release slates and associated awards campaigns. Film festivals in the first half of 2025, such as Sundance, Cannes, and Telluride, will begin to showcase potential contenders. The most recent relevant development was the 31st Actor Awards ceremony in February 2025, which set a new precedent for winners and may influence voter sentiment or campaign strategies for the following year. Speculation among industry pundits is currently based on announced projects and attached talent, but no clear frontrunner has emerged.
Nominations for the 32nd Actor Awards are typically announced in mid‐January 2026, approximately six weeks before the ceremony. An official date will be confirmed by SAG‐AFTRA in late 2025.
The Actor Award is a major Oscar precursor. Historically, the winner has gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress 73% of the time since 1995. This is because the SAG‐AFTRA voting body has significant overlap with the Academy's acting branch.
Winners are determined by a vote of the full, active membership of SAG‐AFTRA, which consists of approximately 160,000 film and television performers. This makes it a true peer award, voted on solely by fellow actors.
According to the market rules, if the designated performer 'X' is not among the nominees announced in January 2026, the market will close and expire at that time. It will not remain open until the ceremony.
The broadcast or streaming partner for the 2026 ceremony has not been announced. The 2024 and 2025 ceremonies streamed live on Netflix. The network or platform for 2026 will be confirmed by SAG‐AFTRA in 2025.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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