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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?

Name: Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?
End: 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?

Vol

$12.81K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.81K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.81K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 2?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 2?	Poly	42%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on May 2?	Poly	38%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 2?	Poly	12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on May 2?	Poly	5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 2?	Poly	2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C on May 2?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 2?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 2?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C or higher on May 2?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 8°C or below on May 2?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

42%

Top Probability

$12.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Me

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 2?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Me

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the spec"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $20.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 8°C or below on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $844
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $924
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $590
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $692
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $578
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $566
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C or higher on May 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 2, 2026): Vol $600
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate