$33.69K
1
4
$33.69K
1
4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the stage of elimination for the Denver Broncos in the 2025–26 NFL Playoffs. The market will immediately resolve once the Denver Broncos’ stage of elimination can be confirmed. If the Denver Broncos’ stage of elimination has not been confirmed by February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL.
Prediction markets currently price the Denver Broncos' most likely playoff exit during the 2025-2026 season as occurring in the Divisional Round, with a 48% probability. This near-coin-flip odds suggest the market views a deep playoff run past the Wild Card weekend as plausible, but sees significant hurdles to reaching a conference championship. The "Will Not Make Playoffs" contract trades at 32%, indicating a roughly one-in-three chance of a complete postseason miss. The market assigns only a 12% chance to a Super Bowl appearance and a mere 4% to winning it all, reflecting a consensus that Denver is a potential playoff team but not a top-tier contender.
The pricing is primarily driven by the team's current roster trajectory and the competitive landscape of the AFC. The Broncos are in a transitional phase, having moved on from veteran quarterback Russell Wilson. The market is likely weighing the potential of rookie quarterback Bo Nix or another future starter against the historically difficult path in a conference featuring Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and CJ Stroud. Furthermore, the team's defensive strength, led by standout cornerback Pat Surtain II, provides a credible floor, making a total collapse less likely than a mid-tier playoff outcome.
Another key factor is the historical performance of teams in the Broncos' position. Franchises undergoing a quarterback change, especially with a first-year starter, rarely make immediate Super Bowl runs. The market is pricing in a realistic scenario where the Broncos secure a playoff berth, potentially win a Wild Card game, but then face a superior opponent in the Divisional Round, which aligns with the 48% probability for that specific exit stage.
The most significant catalyst for odds movement will be the Broncos' performance in the upcoming 2025 regular season, particularly its first half. A strong start, especially with convincing wins against AFC rivals, would rapidly depress the "Miss Playoffs" probability and increase odds for deeper rounds. Conversely, a losing record by mid-season would make the 32% playoff miss probability look optimistic.
Key roster decisions and injuries will also be major drivers. A major offseason acquisition or a season-ending injury to a star player like Surtain would cause immediate repricing. The resolution of the team's long-term quarterback situation will be the ultimate determinant. If Bo Nix or another quarterback emerges as a clear top-10 performer, the current 16% combined probability for a Conference Championship or Super Bowl appearance will seem far too low.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting the Denver Broncos' performance in the 2025–26 NFL playoffs, specifically the stage at which their postseason run will end. The market resolves based on official NFL confirmation of the Broncos' elimination, whether that occurs during the Wild Card round, Divisional round, Conference Championship, Super Bowl, or if they fail to qualify entirely. If no elimination is confirmed by the deadline of February 22, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other.' This type of market allows participants to speculate on the competitive trajectory of a historic NFL franchise based on roster construction, coaching, and conference dynamics. Interest stems from the Broncos' status as a marquee franchise with a massive fanbase and a recent history of volatility, having missed the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons as of 2023. The 2025–26 season represents a critical juncture for the organization, which is attempting to rebuild into a contender following the high-profile acquisition and subsequent release of quarterback Russell Wilson. The market encapsulates the uncertainty surrounding the team's near-term future and the challenging landscape of the AFC, particularly the AFC West division featuring rivals like the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Denver Broncos are a franchise defined by periods of great success, having won three Super Bowls (1997, 1998, 2015). Their most recent championship, led by quarterback Peyton Manning and a historically dominant defense, capped the 2015 season. However, the post-Manning era has been marked by profound instability. The team has not qualified for the NFL playoffs since that Super Bowl 50 victory, a drought spanning eight seasons from 2016 through 2023. This is the longest active playoff drought in the AFC and the second-longest in the entire NFL. The search for a franchise quarterback has been particularly fraught, with over a dozen different starters taking snaps since Manning's retirement. The 2022 trade for nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson, coupled with a massive contract extension, was intended to end the cycle of mediocrity. Instead, the partnership failed spectacularly, leading to Wilson's release in March 2024 after just two seasons and absorbing a record $85 million in dead money. This reset the franchise's timeline and placed immense pressure on the new regime of Sean Payton and George Paton to build a contender from the ground up.
The Broncos' playoff prospects have significant economic and cultural ramifications. For the ownership group, a return to contention would maximize the value of their historic investment, boosting ticket sales, merchandise, and local economic activity in Denver. For the league, a competitive Broncos team is valuable for national television ratings, given their large, national fanbase. On a social level, the team's performance is a core part of the identity of Denver and the Rocky Mountain region. A prolonged slump can dampen civic morale, while a playoff return would galvanize the community. Furthermore, the outcome of this market and the 2025–26 season will serve as a referendum on the current leadership. Failure to show progress could lead to another major organizational shakeup, affecting dozens of careers and setting the franchise back further in its quest to rejoin the NFL's elite.
As of the 2024 offseason, the Denver Broncos are in a clear rebuilding phase under head coach Sean Payton and GM George Paton. The defining move was the release of quarterback Russell Wilson, absorbing unprecedented dead money, and the selection of quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The roster has undergone significant turnover, with an emphasis on acquiring younger players and building through the draft. The team's performance in the 2024 season will be closely watched for signs of development, particularly from Nix and within Payton's offensive system. The primary goal for 2024 is to establish a foundation, with the 2025 season targeted as a potential point where playoff contention becomes a realistic expectation.
The Denver Broncos last qualified for the NFL playoffs in the 2015 season, which they concluded by winning Super Bowl 50. They have missed the postseason in each subsequent year from 2016 through the 2023 season.
Following the release of Russell Wilson, the Broncos entered the 2024 season with a quarterback competition. The favorite is rookie Bo Nix, the 12th overall pick in the 2024 draft, who is expected to be developed as the long-term starter by head coach Sean Payton.
As of early 2024, following a major roster reset, sportsbooks generally list the Denver Broncos with very long odds to win Super Bowl LIX (2025), often around +8000 or higher. This reflects their status as a rebuilding team rather than an immediate contender.
The Denver Broncos have won three Super Bowls in franchise history. They won back-to-back championships in Super Bowl XXXII (1997 season) and Super Bowl XXXIII (1998 season), and won their most recent title in Super Bowl 50 (2015 season).
The Denver Broncos have several historic rivals, but their primary divisional rival is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders and Chargers are also key AFC West rivals. The rivalry with the Chiefs has intensified in recent years due to Kansas City's dominance of the division.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
4 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 48% |
| Poly | 26% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 10% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/m0HD1C" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Denver Broncos: Stage of Elimination 2025–2026"></iframe>