GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Name: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
End: 2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1484.09M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Vol

$1484.09M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1272.83M

Kalshi

markets · $211.26M

Price Spread

0.4%avg

max 3.1%

Arbitrage

of 35 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $1484.09M

86%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

64 markets tracked

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(35)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?ARB	20%	17%	3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	16%	17%	1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	14%	14%	1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	8%	8%	0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	6%	6%	0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	6%	5%	1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	3%	5%	2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	3%	4%	1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2%	4%	1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2%	2%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(29)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

20%

Top Probability

$1484.09M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2028

If X wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Democratic nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination. This market will close after Democratic nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1484.09M
* **Total Liquidity:** $80.70M
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 18.39)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (51 mkts) vs Kalshi (48 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $15.10M
  DATA: [Yes: 19.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $9.00M
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.1% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $13.09M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $5.21M
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.1% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $34.01M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $5.47M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $52.73M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.31M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $17.25M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.93M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $26.12M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.72M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $12.49M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.86M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $27.13M
  DATA: [Yes: 14.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $9.77M
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $35.72M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.45M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $12.00M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.26M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $43.79M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.73M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $44.24M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $7.59M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $15.57M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $5.06M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $27.34M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.67M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $25.59M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.20M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $12.86M
  DATA: [Yes: 15.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $7.60M
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $24.65M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.46M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $9.78M
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $5.39M
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $13.15M
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $7.22M
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $43.96M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.14M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $38.48M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.10M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $22.89M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $5.02M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $17.48M
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $7.30M
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.8% spread between platforms.

### 24. Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $26.20M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $5.98M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $11.97M
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $6.11M
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $42.39M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.65M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $14.54M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $6.82M
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $32.14M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.21M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $31.45M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.27M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $22.37M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $6.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $43.35M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.15M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $18.42M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.72M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $38.86M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $7.87M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Ro Khanna be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $6.30M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $11.25M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Ruben Gallego be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.31M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $8.42M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Chris Van Hollen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $36.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Shawn Fain be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $27.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will Abdul El-Sayed be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.30M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will Mitch Landrieu be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $112.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will Elizabeth Warren be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.80M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 41. Will Graham Platner be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $4.29M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 42. Will Beto O'Rourke be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.15M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 43. Will Jasmine Crockett be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.14M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 44. Will Andrew Yang be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.14M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 45. Will Amy Klobuchar be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.94M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 46. Will Elissa Slotkin be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.48M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 47. Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $6.34M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 48. Will Jamie Dimon be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $3.26M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 49. Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $43.35M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 50. Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $50.37M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 51. Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $40.98M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 52. Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $54.38M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 53. Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $48.73M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 54. Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $42.81M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 55. Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $42.85M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 56. Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $36.46M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 57. Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $10.63M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 58. Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $8.51M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 59. Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 60. Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $803.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 61. Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.17M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 62. Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $439.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 63. Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $2.32M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 64. Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $786.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

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Rules & Resolution

Differs

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Different

Timing

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KALSHIElections

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

In 2028 If X wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Democratic nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination. This market will close after Democratic nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

Volume$211.26M

Markets48

POLYMARKETPolitics

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Volume$1272.83M

Markets51

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Arbitrage Opportunity: 3.1% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average18.1%

Polymarket+3.1%

19.7%

Kalshi

16.5%

Difference:3.1% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 19.7¢No 80.3¢

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Democratic nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average16.0%

Polymarket

15.6%

Kalshi+1.0%

16.5%

Difference:1.0%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 15.6¢No 84.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

If Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Democratic nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average14.0%

Polymarket+0.9%

14.4%

Kalshi

13.5%

Difference:0.9%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 14.4¢No 85.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

If Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Democratic nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average8.1%

Polymarket+0.1%

8.1%

Kalshi

8.0%

Difference:0.1%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 8.1¢No 91.9¢

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

If Kamala Harris wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Democratic nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average5.5%

Polymarket

5.5%

Kalshi

5.5%

Difference:0.0%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

If Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Democratic nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.

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Next Market Closes

792d 23h remaining

Nov 07, 2028 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

3¢

Polymarket

3¢

Kalshi

3¢ price gap

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/m0QVA2" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"></iframe>

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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Markets (35)

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Market Insights

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

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Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Platform Breakdown

Event Comparison

Share

Embed Widget