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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

Name: Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$89.51K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

Vol

$89.51K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $89.51K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $89.51K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Poly	30%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Poly	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$89.51K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an offi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (168 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an offi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $30.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.18)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $30.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $226
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics