Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

Name: Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.45K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

Vol

$9.45K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.45K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?	Poly	16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$9.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements w

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements w

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either mad"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture