Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

CPI core month-over-month in Dec 2026

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CPI core month-over-month in Dec 2026

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11 markets tracked

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?	Kalshi	43%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.3%?	Kalshi	35%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.1%?	Kalshi	12%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.4%?	Kalshi	9%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.0%?	Kalshi	6%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.5%?	Kalshi	6%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 1.0%?	Kalshi	5%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.9%?	Kalshi	5%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.8%?	Kalshi	5%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.7%?	Kalshi	5%
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.6%?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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43%

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$0.00

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About This Event

Dec 2026 If the CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. “CPI core” means the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CPI core month-over-month in Dec 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Dec 2026

If the CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 is exactly X then the market resolves to Yes. “CPI core” means the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one decimal place. Subsequent revisions will not affect settlement. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 is exactly 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “CPI core” means the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 1.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.7%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.1%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

CPI core month-over-month in Dec 2026

Volume$0.00

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KALSHI

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.0¢No 57.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?

If the CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 is exactly 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “CPI core” means the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one d

KALSHI

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.0¢No 65.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.3%?

If the CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 is exactly 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “CPI core” means the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one d

KALSHI

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.1%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.1%?

If the CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 is exactly 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “CPI core” means the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one d

KALSHI

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.4%?

If the CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 is exactly 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “CPI core” means the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one d

KALSHI

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.0%?

If the CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 is exactly 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “CPI core” means the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in the CPI-U for all items less food and energy, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and rounded to one d

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CPI core month-over-month in Dec 2026

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Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?

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Events (1)

CPI core month-over-month in Dec 2026

Markets (11)

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.3%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.3%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.1%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.1%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.4%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.4%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.0%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.0%?

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Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?

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CPI core month-over-month in Dec 2026

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.3%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.3%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.1%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.1%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.4%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.4%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.0%?

Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.0%?

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