$2.84K
1
8
$2.84K
1
8
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the January data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The January release is presently scheduled for February 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the sp
Prediction markets are currently pricing in a 44% probability that the average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs in U.S. cities will fall between $2.50 and $2.75 in January 2026, according to the leading contract on Polymarket. This "Uncertain" designation and sub-50% price indicate the market sees no single outcome as having a clear majority. The remaining probability is distributed across other price brackets, from below $2.25 to above $3.00, reflecting significant uncertainty over future egg price inflation. With only $3,000 in total trading volume, this is a thin, illiquid market where prices can be more sensitive to individual bets.
The primary factor shaping this cautious outlook is the extreme historical volatility in egg prices, which are highly sensitive to avian influenza outbreaks and feed cost fluctuations. After spiking above $4.50 per dozen in early 2023 due to severe bird flu, prices normalized through 2024 and 2025, recently hovering near the $2.50-$2.75 range. The current pricing suggests traders believe supply chains have stabilized but remain wary of another shock. Secondly, broader disinflation trends in the U.S. economy for other grocery items are providing a moderating influence on price forecasts, anchoring expectations away from the highs of 2023.
The odds will be most sensitive to new reports of avian influenza in major egg-producing states ahead of the January data collection period. A significant outbreak before late January 2026 would likely collapse the probability for the $2.50-$2.75 bracket and shift it toward higher price contracts. Conversely, sustained low feed costs and no disease news could increase confidence in the current range. The official data release by the St. Louis Fed, scheduled for February 11, 2026, is the final resolution catalyst. Until then, traders will monitor U.S. Department of Agriculture poultry health reports and corn/soybean futures as leading indicators for production costs.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the January 2026 retail price for a dozen Grade A large eggs in the U.S. city average, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The specific data series, APU0000708111, represents a critical benchmark for food inflation, tracking the cost per dozen for this staple grocery item across urban areas nationwide. The market resolves based on the official data point for January, which is scheduled for release on February 11, 2026, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and subsequently updated in the St. Louis Fed's FRED database. This price is a highly visible economic indicator, often cited in news reports and political discourse as a proxy for household cost-of-living pressures. Recent interest in egg price forecasting has intensified due to extreme volatility over the past several years, driven by factors ranging from avian influenza outbreaks to shifts in feed costs and consumer demand. Market participants, including economists, policymakers, and agricultural analysts, monitor this price closely as it reflects both supply chain dynamics in the poultry industry and broader inflationary trends affecting American consumers.
Historically, egg prices were relatively stable, with gradual increases tracking general inflation. A significant shift occurred in 2015, when a major avian influenza outbreak led to the culling of over 50 million birds, primarily egg-laying hens. This caused the average price for a dozen eggs to surge to approximately $2.75 in September 2015, a record high at the time, demonstrating the market's vulnerability to disease. Prices normalized over the following years as the industry rebuilt flocks. The period from 2020 to 2023 witnessed unprecedented volatility. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, initial supply chain disruptions and panic buying caused brief price spikes. However, the most dramatic event began in February 2022, with the emergence of a new, devastating strain of HPAI. By the end of 2022, over 58 million commercial and backyard birds were affected. This supply shock, combined with elevated feed and energy costs due to the war in Ukraine and broader inflation, propelled the average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs to an all-time nominal high of $4.82 in January 2023, according to BLS data. This event cemented eggs as a bellwether for food inflation and supply chain fragility in the public consciousness.
The price of eggs matters because it is a highly visible and politically sensitive component of the Consumer Price Index, directly affecting household budgets, particularly for low and middle-income families for whom food constitutes a larger share of expenditures. Sharp increases can erode consumer purchasing power and influence perceptions of economic management, often becoming a talking point in political campaigns. Economists and the Federal Reserve monitor food prices, including eggs, as part of core inflation metrics that inform monetary policy decisions on interest rates. For the agricultural sector, egg prices determine profitability for farmers and influence investment in biosecurity and production capacity. Sustained high prices can also shift consumer behavior, potentially reducing consumption or accelerating adoption of alternative protein sources, with long-term implications for the poultry industry. Downstream, food manufacturers and restaurants that rely on eggs as an ingredient face higher input costs, which can lead to broader price increases across the food service sector.
As of late 2024 and early 2025, the egg market has entered a period of relative stability following the turbulence of 2022-2023. The national laying hen flock has been restored, and no major, widespread avian influenza outbreaks have occurred in commercial egg-producing regions recently. However, the virus remains endemic in wild bird populations, presenting an ongoing risk. Feed costs, while elevated from historical norms, have moderated from peaks seen in 2022. The Consumer Price Index for eggs has shown modest year-over-year changes in recent months. Market analysts are currently monitoring factors such as seasonal demand patterns, the potential for localized HPAI cases, and global grain market conditions as they build forecasts for 2026.
Egg prices are primarily driven by supply and demand. Major price increases are typically caused by supply shocks like avian influenza outbreaks that reduce the laying hen flock, or by surges in feed costs (corn and soy). Prices fall when supply recovers, demand weakens, or input costs decrease.
The BLS collects price data monthly from a sample of grocery stores and other retail outlets across U.S. urban areas. Data collectors record the actual price consumers pay for a specific good, in this case a dozen Grade A large eggs. These prices are averaged and weighted to create the 'U.S. city average' index value.
The primary driver was the deadliest outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in U.S. history, which began in early 2022 and led to the loss of tens of millions of egg-laying hens. This severe supply reduction coincided with high inflation, increased production costs for feed and energy, and strong consumer demand.
No. The specific BLS series (APU0000708111) and this prediction market track only the price for 'Eggs, Grade A, Large.' This category represents conventional eggs. Prices for specialty eggs like organic, cage-free, or free-range are tracked in separate BLS categories and are typically higher.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases CPI data, including the egg price, around the 10th to 15th of each month for the previous month. The release for January 2026 data is currently scheduled for February 11, 2026. The St. Louis Fed updates its FRED chart shortly thereafter.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 44% |
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 22% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
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