Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 11?

Name: Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 11?
End: 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.67K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 11?

Vol

$1.67K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.67K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.67K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on October 11?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on October 11?	Poly	51%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on October 11?	Poly	50%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on October 11?	Poly	50%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 11?	Poly	0%
Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on October 11?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$1.67K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day followi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 11?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 11, 2026 (0 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day followi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading und"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $105.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C or below on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $275
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $272
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $159
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $872
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on October 11?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate