Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Will Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?

Total Volume

$16.30K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?

Vol

$16.30K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $16.30K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.30K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Russia name the pathogen behind the Irkutsk plague lab death before Nov 1, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Russia name the pathogen behind the Irkutsk plague lab death before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$16.30K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Before Nov 1, 2026 If Rospotrebnadzor announces the identification of a specific pathogen as the cause of the fatal pneumonia of an Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only an announcement by Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, including its Irkutsk Oblast office, counts. It must name a specific organism, such as Yersinia pestis or another bacterium, virus or fungus identified by genus or species, as the cause

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Nov 1, 2026

If Rospotrebnadzor announces the identification of a specific pathogen as the cause of the fatal pneumonia of an Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only an announcement by Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, including its Irkutsk Oblast office, counts. It must name a specific organism, such as Yersinia pestis or another bacterium, virus or fungus identified by genus or species, as the cause 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Rospotrebnadzor announces the identification of a specific pathogen as the cause of the fatal pneumonia of an Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only an announcement by Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public heal"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Russia name the pathogen behind the Irkutsk plague lab death before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $16.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology