GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsWorld

Next French Presidential Election

Name: Next French Presidential Election
End: 2027-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$127.81M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Next French Presidential Election

Vol

$127.81M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $127.50M

Kalshi

markets · $313.00K

Price Spread

0.7%avg

max 2.3%

Arbitrage

of 23 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $127.81M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

46 markets tracked

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(23)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?ARB	36%	38%	2%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?ARB	27%	25%	2%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	13%	13%	1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	3%	4%	1%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?ARB	2%	5%	2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	3%	2%	1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	2%	1%	1%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	0%	1%	1%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?	0%	1%	1%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?	0%	1%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(23)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$127.81M

Volume

Markets

1.4%

Price Gap

About This Event

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resol

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next French presidential election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves Y This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $127.81M
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.40M
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.80)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (41 mkts) vs Kalshi (28 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $98.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.14M
  DATA: [Yes: 35.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.1% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.14M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $18.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.78M
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $3.66M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $15.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.14M
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $20.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.32M
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $4.06M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.45M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $397
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.51M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $8
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $4.74M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $4.82M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $77.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.00M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.3% spread between platforms.

### 13. Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $27.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.46M
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.0% spread between platforms.

### 14. Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.79M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $3.21M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.10M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $101
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.64M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.25M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.94M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $24
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.69M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.06M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $59
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.27M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $6.42M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $31.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Bruno Le Maire win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.63M
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.64M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $3.68M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $4.22M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.71M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.83M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.72M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $4.98M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $4.72M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.95M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.20M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $4.15M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 41. Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.57M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 42. Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $290.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 43. Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $222.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 44. Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $556.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 45. Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $545.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 46. Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $291.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

Next French presidential election winner?

In 2027 If X wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves Y This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Volume$313.00K

Markets28

POLYMARKETWorld

Next French Presidential Election

Volume$127.50M

Markets41

46 of 46

Sort:

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.1% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average37.0%

Polymarket

35.9%

Kalshi+2.1%

38.0%

Difference:2.1% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 35.9¢No 64.1¢

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.0% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average25.5%

Polymarket+2.0%

26.5%

Kalshi

24.5%

Difference:2.0% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

If Édouard Philippe wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average12.8%

Polymarket

12.5%

Kalshi+0.5%

13.0%

Difference:0.5%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

If Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

If François Hollande wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

POLYMARKET

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 3.6¢No 96.4¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

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Next Market Closes

236d remaining

Apr 30, 2027 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

4¢

Kalshi

2¢ price gap

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/mCgKmi" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Next French Presidential Election"></iframe>

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Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

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Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

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Events (2)

Next French presidential election winner?

Next French Presidential Election

Markets (23)

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Next French presidential election winner?

Next French Presidential Election

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

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