GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Next French presidential election winner?

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Next French presidential election winner?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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28 markets tracked

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

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Single-Platform Markets(28)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	35%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	26%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	10%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	9%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Bruno Le Maire win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

In 2027 If X wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves Y This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next French presidential election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves Y This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Bruno Le Maire win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Next French presidential election winner?

In 2027 If X wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves Y This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Volume$0.00

Markets28

28 of 28

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KALSHI

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

If Édouard Philippe wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.9¢No 90.1¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

If Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

If Jordan Bardella wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.8¢No 95.3¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

If Gabriel Attal wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Next French presidential election winner?

Next French presidential election winner?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Next French presidential election winner?

Markets (23)

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Next French presidential election winner?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

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