Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? | PredictPedia

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28 markets tracked

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

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Single-Platform Markets(28)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	32%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	21%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	10%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	7%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Bruno Le Maire win the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, May 30, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X wins the next French presidential election, currently scheduled for 2027, then the market resolves Y This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Bruno Le Maire win the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

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Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

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Events (1)

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Markets (23)

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

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Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

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