North Carolina Senate District 35 winner? (2028)
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North Carolina Senate District 35 winner? (2028)
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Republican party at 95.5%.
Kalshi
- Republican party95.5%
- Democratic party3.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Senate District 35 If X wins the 2028 general election for North Carolina Senate District 35, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner. Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes. X candidate listed with more than one party's label is affiliated only with the first party listed, and a candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is affiliated with that national party. Independent and unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates not listed on the official ballot, are affiliated with no party. X candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which the candidate qualified. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T03:00:06.009Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event asks who will win the 2028 general election for North Carolina Senate District 35 [1]. Under the event rules, a market resolves to Yes if the named party's candidate wins that election. Party affiliation follows the party label on the official ballot, regardless of later changes [1]. A candidate listed under more than one party is affiliated only with the first party listed, and a candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is affiliated with that national party. Independent, unaffiliated, and unlisted write-in candidates are affiliated with no party [1]. The market may be determined early after a designated media source declares the winner, and it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Reading the snapshot
The sample contains two Kalshi markets from this event: one asking whether the Republican Party wins and one asking whether the Democratic Party wins [1]. The observed Yes price for the Republican Party market was 0.955, and for the Democratic Party market it was 0.035 [1]. These values were observed at 2026-11-12T03:00:06Z, so they describe that moment, not a live quote. They are not executable prices or verified probabilities. The two Yes prices belong to separate contracts, and their relationship to each other does not by itself indicate an opportunity. The sample includes all saved markets for this event, but the source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Nothing in the evidence describes outcomes that are absent, so no conclusion about them should be drawn.
What remains uncertain
The listed end time is inconsistent across fields. The excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied," while the market records show an end date of 2029-11-07T15:00:00.000Z [1]. A date in contract data is not an announced event date, so this should not be read as a scheduled election or resolution date. The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it does not report trading activity, participant counts, or liquidity. The supplied material does not show that the event has resolved.
References
- Kalshi: North Carolina Senate District 35 winner? (2028). Provider data observed 2026-11-12T03:00:06.009Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTCOverview
This market belongs to a Kalshi event asking who will win the 2028 general election for North Carolina Senate District 35 [1]. The event page describes a contract that resolves to Yes if the candidate labeled X wins that election [1]. The event is listed with two related markets, one asking whether the Republican Party will win the seat and one asking whether the Democratic Party will win it [1]. Each market has a Yes and a No outcome, so a single race is split into party-based contracts. The contract's timing depends on the 2028 election calendar. The Wikipedia article on the 2028 United States Senate elections states that those elections will be held on November 7, 2028, with 34 of the 100 Senate seats contested in regular elections [2]. Winners would serve six-year terms beginning January 3, 2029 [2]. A separate Wikipedia article on the 2028 United States elections describes the same election date for elections in the United States, including congressional and state legislative races [3]. These pages describe scheduled elections as of their retrieval, and they are background rather than confirmation of any outcome. The contract's market data lists an end date of November 7, 2029 [1]. The provider's rules do not supply a listed end time, so that date should be read as a field in the contract data rather than an announced event date or a confirmed settlement date.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific party wins the 2028 general election for North Carolina Senate District 35 [1]. Under the provider rules, party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, not by any later change in affiliation [1]. If a candidate appears with more than one party's label, the rules count only the first party listed, and a candidate listed under a state affiliate of a national party is treated as affiliated with that national party [1]. Independent, unaffiliated, and unlisted write-in candidates are treated as having no party [1]. A candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which that candidate qualified [1]. The rules also provide for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner, and the market closes and expires early if the event occurs [1]. This means the contract's final status can come before the listed end date once the winner is declared under those terms [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to a designated media declaration and ballot labels, the contract's meaning depends on those specific provisions rather than on general party identity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean in this contract?
According to the provider rules, the market resolves to Yes if the candidate labeled X wins the 2028 general election for North Carolina Senate District 35 [1].
How is a candidate's party determined for this market?
Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed on the official ballot, regardless of later changes [1]. A candidate listed with more than one party is affiliated only with the first party listed, and a candidate listed under a state affiliate of a national party is affiliated with that national party [1].
Can the market close before the listed end date?
Yes. The rules say the market can be determined early after a designated media source declares the winner, and it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
When is the 2028 election scheduled?
The Wikipedia article on the 2028 United States Senate elections states that the elections will be held on November 7, 2028 [2]. The article on the 2028 United States elections gives the same date for elections in the United States [3].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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