Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

New York State Assembly winner?

Total Volume

$86.00

Events

Markets

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New York State Assembly winner?

Vol

$86.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $86.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $86.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)	Kalshi	99%
Who will win the New York Assembly? (Republican party)	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$86.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

New York Assembly If X party wins the New York Assembly in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the New York Assembly is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following a winner

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New York State Assembly winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** New York Assembly

If X party wins the New York Assembly in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the New York Assembly is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following a winner 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican party wins the New York Assembly in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the New York Assembly is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $86
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the New York Assembly? (Republican party)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $86
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

New York State Assembly winner?

Volume$86.00

Markets2

2 of 2

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KALSHI

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)

If the Democratic party wins the New York Assembly in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the New York Assembly is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market r

KALSHI

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Republican party)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Republican party)

If the Republican party wins the New York Assembly in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the New York Assembly is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market r

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51¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/mDDzkg" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="New York State Assembly winner?"></iframe>

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New York State Assembly winner?

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Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

New York State Assembly winner?

Markets (2)

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Republican party)

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Republican party)

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Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

New York State Assembly winner?

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Democratic party)

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Republican party)

Who will win the New York Assembly? (Republican party)

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Discussion

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