
$1.75K
1
10

$1.75K
1
10
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If the Vice President breaks exactly X ties in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President J.D. Vance in the United States Senate during the year 2026. The Vice President serves as the President of the Senate under the U.S. Constitution, with the specific power to cast a vote only when the Senate is equally divided. This creates a critical mechanism for breaking legislative deadlocks, particularly in closely divided chambers. The market allows participants to speculate on the frequency of this constitutional duty, which serves as a direct indicator of partisan balance, legislative productivity, and the political influence of the executive branch in the Senate. Interest in this topic stems from the 2024 election of the Trump-Vance administration and the subsequent composition of the 119th Congress, where narrow margins in the Senate amplify the importance of every vote. Observers are closely monitoring how often Vice President Vance's tie-breaking power will be invoked, as it reflects both the administration's legislative agenda and the level of partisan cohesion within the Senate Republican conference. The outcome has implications for judicial confirmations, budget resolutions, and major policy initiatives.
The Vice President's tie-breaking power is established in Article I, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution. Historically, its use has varied dramatically depending on the partisan composition of the Senate. John C. Calhoun holds the record with 31 tie-breaking votes during his tenure from 1825 to 1832, a period of intense factionalism. In the modern era, Vice President Mike Pence broke 13 ties during the 115th Congress (2017-2018), when Republicans held a narrow 52-48 majority that was often narrowed further by absences or defections. This period saw crucial votes on tax reform and the confirmation of Cabinet officials. Vice President Kamala Harris broke 31 ties during the 117th and 118th Congresses (2021-2024), a modern record, due to the Senate's persistent 50-50 and then 51-49 Democratic majority. These votes were pivotal for passing the American Rescue Plan Act and confirming numerous judicial nominees. The historical precedent shows that tie-breaking frequency spikes during periods of narrow majorities and contentious presidential agendas, precisely the conditions anticipated for 2026. The record for a single year in the 21st century is 15, set by Harris in 2021.
The number of tie-breaking votes is a vital metric for the health of the legislative process and the balance of power. A high count signals a deeply polarized Senate unable to build bipartisan consensus, forcing reliance on the Vice President to enact any aspect of the majority's agenda. This can exacerbate political divisions and lead to policy swings with each change in administration. For markets and governance, it indicates higher political risk and legislative uncertainty, affecting everything from federal budgeting to regulatory policy. For the public, frequent tie-breaking often means major legislation is passed by the slimmest possible margins, potentially representing the preferences of a narrow majority with little compromise. This dynamic affects the stability of laws governing healthcare, taxation, and climate policy. Furthermore, a high number of ties on judicial confirmations can shape the federal judiciary for decades, with lifetime appointments decided by a single vote. The outcome of this market thus serves as a barometer for the intensity of partisan conflict and the efficacy of the administration's congressional strategy.
As of late 2024, the outcome of the 2024 elections will determine the composition of the Senate for the 119th Congress, which begins in January 2025 and runs through 2026. Polls and analysts project a high probability of a very narrow Republican majority or a continued 50-50 split. The legislative agenda for 2026 is expected to include contentious debates over the extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which expires in 2025, appropriations bills, and further judicial nominations. The political environment remains highly polarized, suggesting that party-line votes will be common. The specific number of ties will depend on the final Senate margin, the discipline of the Republican conference, and the tactical decisions of Democratic leadership.
The Vice President serves as the President of the Senate according to the U.S. Constitution. This is primarily a ceremonial role, but it includes the critical, non-ceremonial power to cast a vote in the event of a tie among the 100 Senators. The Vice President does not preside over daily sessions but may appear to break a tie.
The historical record is held by John C. Calhoun with 31 ties. The modern record (post-1945) is held by Kamala Harris, who broke 31 ties across her entire term. The record for a single calendar year in the modern era is also held by Harris, with 15 in 2021.
No. The Vice President can only break a tie on questions that require a simple majority vote. They cannot break ties on votes that require a supermajority, such as the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture to end a filibuster on most legislation, or the 67 votes needed to convict in an impeachment trial.
A 50-50 Senate dramatically increases the Vice President's practical power. In this scenario, the Vice President's party effectively holds a functional majority only when the Vice President is present to break a tie. This makes the Vice President a constant, necessary vote for the majority party to pass any partisan legislation or confirm nominees.
If the Senate is tied and the Vice President is not present to break it, the motion or nomination fails. This rule emphasizes the importance of the Vice President's availability and can be used as a tactical tool by the opposing party if they know the Vice President will be absent.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
10 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 2 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 28% |
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 3 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 24% |
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 1 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 17% |
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 4 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 9 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 8 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 7 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 6 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 5 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 5% |
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 0 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/mIIEaI" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many ties will J.D. Vance break in 2026?"></iframe>