This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States before March 31, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Trump resigns, is permanently removed from office, or otherwise stops being president for any period of time by that date. An announcement of such a resignation or removal before the deadline would immediately resolve the market to 'Yes', even if the action takes effect later. The question reflects ongoing political and legal scrutiny surrounding Trump's potential second term, which begins on January 20, 2025. Interest in this market stems from multiple factors, including Trump's unprecedented legal challenges, the polarized political environment, and historical precedents for presidential removal. Trump faces four separate criminal indictments encompassing 91 felony charges, with two cases directly related to his actions while in office. These legal proceedings, combined with the constitutional mechanisms for presidential removal, create uncertainty about the stability of a potential second Trump administration. The 2024 election saw Trump defeat incumbent Joe Biden, returning him to the White House after a four-year absence. His previous term ended following his 2020 election loss to Biden and the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, after which the House impeached him for a second time. The current prediction market essentially measures the perceived risk of a truncated presidency due to resignation, impeachment and conviction, or invocation of the 25th Amendment.

Historical Context

The United States has established three primary methods for a president to leave office before the end of their term: resignation, impeachment and conviction, and the 25th Amendment. Only one president has resigned: Richard Nixon on August 9, 1974, facing near-certain impeachment and conviction for the Watergate scandal. No president has ever been removed by the Senate after impeachment. Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868 and avoided conviction by a single vote. Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998 and acquitted by the Senate in 1999. Donald Trump holds the distinction of being impeached twice. The House impeached him in December 2019 on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress related to Ukraine. The Senate acquitted him in February 2020. The House impeached him a second time in January 2021 for incitement of insurrection following the January 6 Capitol attack. The Senate acquitted him in February 2021, with a 57-43 vote to convict falling 10 votes short of the required two-thirds. The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, provides a process for declaring a president unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office. Section 4 allows the vice president and a majority of the cabinet to declare the president unfit, temporarily transferring power to the vice president. The president can contest this declaration, requiring a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress to sustain the vice president's action. This provision has never been invoked to remove a president.

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