Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will New Hampshire home prices rise YoY?

Total Volume

$12.32K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will New Hampshire home prices rise YoY?

Vol

$12.32K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $12.32K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.32K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 478.68?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 478.68?	Kalshi	81%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$12.32K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Q4 2026 If FHFA reports that New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 is above 478.68, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the New Hampshire (NH) Q4 2026 indexsa value in FHFA’s quarterly Purchase-Only State HPI dataset. The 478.68 threshold is fixed and will not change if FHFA later revises its Q4 2025 value. Use NH → 2026 → Q4 → indexsa. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will New Hampshire home prices rise YoY?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q4 2026

If FHFA reports that New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 is above 

478.68, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the New Hampshire (NH) Q4 2026 indexsa value in FHFA’s quarterly Purchase-Only State HPI dataset. The 478.68 threshold is fixed and will not change if FHFA later revises its Q4 2025 value.

Use NH → 2026 → Q4 → indexsa. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If FHFA reports that New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 is above 

478.68, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the New Hampshire (NH) Q4 2026 indexsa value in FHFA’s quarterly Purchase-Only State HPI dataset. The 478.68 thr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 478.68?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $12.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics