Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will New Mexico crude oil production rise YoY?

Total Volume

$353.34

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Markets

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Will New Mexico crude oil production rise YoY?

Vol

$353.34

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $353.34

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $353.34

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will New Mexico’s field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 819.225 million barrels?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will New Mexico’s field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 819.225 million barrels?	Kalshi	97%

AI Analysis

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97%

Top Probability

$353.34

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

2026 If EIA reports that New Mexico’s field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 819.225 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is EIA’s New Mexico Field Production of Crude Oil annual total for 2026. EIA reports this statistic in thousand barrels, so the fixed threshold is 819,225 thousand barrels. The threshold will not change if EIA later revises its 2025 value. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will New Mexico crude oil production rise YoY?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If EIA reports that New Mexico’s field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 

819.225 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is EIA’s New Mexico Field Production of Crude Oil annual total for 2026. EIA reports this statistic in thousand barrels, so the fixed threshold is 819,225 thousand barrels. The threshold will not change if EIA later revises its 2025 value. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If EIA reports that New Mexico’s field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 

819.225 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is EIA’s New Mexico Field Production of Crude Oil annual total for 2026. EIA reports this statistic in thousand b"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $353
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will New Mexico’s field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 819.225 million barrels?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 5, 2027): Vol $353
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics