
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
PM $614.1K
1
10
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

PM $614.1K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Hesai at 38.5%.
Polymarket
- Hesai38.5%
- CATL20%
- Unitree17%
- CXMT16.5%
- Baidu15.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $614.1K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks whether a specified company will be fully removed from the "Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H" list by June 30, 2027 [1]. The contract resolves "Yes" only if a "subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense" or an "official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting" reflects the removal [1]. Several cases do not count. Removing a subsidiary while the parent stays listed does not qualify, and a company that disappears "solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed" [1]. Suspended enforcement without delisting also does not qualify [1]. The listed end time is 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to the contract's June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z and retrieved at 2026-10-23T03:59:06.041Z [1]. These are records of a past observation, not live quotes. The sample includes all 10 saved Polymarket markets for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. Each market is a separate Yes or No contract for one company. Within this snapshot, CATL's Yes price is 0.195, Hesai's is 0.175, Unitree's is 0.17, BYD's and CXMT's are each 0.165, Baidu's is 0.155, Alibaba's and Tencent's are each 0.135, YMTC's is 0.125, and DJI's is 0.105 [1].
These prices show where each contract traded at observation. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not show trading volume or how many people hold each view. Because the contracts are for different companies, their prices should not be summed, averaged, or read as a single ranking of a common field. A lower price on one contract also does not mean a different company is less likely to be removed in reality, since the rules and the question differ.
What remains uncertain
The provider notes that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The snapshot also does not include volume, liquidity, or price history, so it cannot show how these prices have moved. The evidence gives no explanation for the price levels. Resolution depends on a future DoD list or notice, and the rules allow a "consensus of credible reporting and official information" as the resolution source [1]. Readers should check the current contract and official DoD sources before relying on any price.
References
- Polymarket: Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether a specified company will be removed from the list titled "Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021" by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The contract resolves to "Yes" only if the named company is fully removed from that list by the deadline, and to "No" otherwise [1]. The event groups several single-company contracts under one question, so each company has its own yes or no market that shares the same rules and end time [1]. The contract's reference point is the list as it stood on June 8, 2026, which the contract links to a Department of Defense release [1]. A qualifying removal must appear in a later list published by the Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, or in an official Department of Defense announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting [1]. The rules are strict about what does not count. Removing a subsidiary or affiliate while the parent company stays listed does not qualify, although removing a company does qualify even if its formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain as separate entries [1]. A company that drops off only because of a renaming, a merger with another listed entity, or a transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate is not treated as removed [1]. A removal that is later retracted or withdrawn still qualifies [1]. Suspending enforcement of a designation without removing the company from the list does not count [1]. The resolution source is described as a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense, which the contract links under both its defense.gov and war.gov addresses [1]. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by the deadline, the contract resolves to "No" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to the 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules [1]. That end time describes when the contract closes under its rules, not an announced date for any list change.
Historical Context
The contract's rules refer to a list that was published by the Department of Defense and that the contract dates to June 8, 2026 [1]. Separately, the supplied background describes an economic conflict between China and the United States that has been ongoing since January 2018, when the Trump administration began imposing tariffs and other trade barriers on China [2]. That article reports that the first Trump administration said Chinese practices may contribute to the trade deficit and that the Chinese government requires the transfer of American technology [2]. It also describes a phase-one agreement reached in January 2020 that China did not fully meet because of the COVID-19 pandemic [2]. A separate background article describes a diplomatic crisis between China and Japan that began in November 2025 after remarks by Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi [3]. The supplied evidence does not connect either of these events to the Section 1260H list or to any decision about specific companies, so they provide general context only.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the U.S. Department of Defense formally removes a named company from its Section 1260H list before the deadline [1]. Because the rules require a full removal from the list, a company that remains listed, or that is only subject to a suspended designation, would not resolve the contract as "Yes" [1]. The rules also make clear that corporate restructuring, such as a renaming or merger, does not count as removal unless the company is actually dropped from the list [1]. For anyone reading the contract's prices, the contract defines a specific official event, so it does not measure general policy sentiment toward the companies named [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a qualifying removal?
A qualifying removal happens when the named company no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list, and the removal is reflected in a later list published by the Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, or in an official announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting [1].
Does removing a subsidiary count?
No. Removing a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the named company remains listed does not qualify, though removing the named company qualifies even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries stay on the list as separate entries [1].
Does a renamed or merged company count as removed?
No. A company that ceases to appear only because of renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate is not considered removed [1].
What happens if enforcement of a designation is suspended?
Suspension of enforcement without removal from the list does not qualify as a removal, because the contract determines status entirely by presence on the list [1].
What happens if no qualifying change occurs by the deadline?
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the contract resolves to "No" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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