Which companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
PM $127.2K · K 862.18 contracts
2
10
Which companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
PM $127.2K · K 862.18 contracts
2
10
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $127.2K · K 862.18 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Before Jul 1, 2027 If the United States Department of Defense announces the inclusion X as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list of Chinese military companies before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two provider events ask related but not identical questions. The Kalshi event asks which companies will be added to the Pentagon's Chinese military companies list. Its sampled contracts resolve to Yes if the United States Department of Defense announces the inclusion of a named company "as an expressly named entity on the unclassified §1260H list" before Jul 1, 2027 [1]. The excerpt includes an early close condition, and no listed end time for the event is supplied [1]. The sampled Kalshi contracts show an end date of 2027-07-09T00:00:00.000Z [1].
The Polymarket event asks whether a specified company will be added to the list by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [2]. Its rules count an addition reflected in a subsequent list published by the Department of Defense "in the Federal Register or on its official website," and state that addition of a subsidiary or parent company qualifies [2]. The listed end time is 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z [2]. Because the announcement channel, parent and subsidiary treatment, and closing times differ, the two platforms' prices describe different propositions.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z, and the source retrieval time is 2026-10-19T03:34:56Z [1][2]. These figures describe that snapshot only. Both samples include every saved market for their events, with six Kalshi markets and four Polymarket markets, and neither is marked partial [1][2]. The source notes that this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome, so omitted companies should not be assumed to have lower prices [1][2].
On Kalshi, Yes prices range from 0.105 for ByteDance to 0.26 for Gotion High-Tech [1]. Xiaomi is at 0.255, Moonshot AI at 0.21, WuXi Biologics at 0.185, and DeepSeek at 0.18 [1]. On Polymarket, Yes prices are 0.205 for Xiaomi, and 0.165 each for DeepSeek, ByteDance, and Moonshot AI [2].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. DeepSeek appears on both platforms at 0.18 and 0.165, but these are separate contracts with different rules, so the gap is not an arbitrage opportunity. Averaging across platforms would also combine unlike outcomes.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include volume, liquidity, trader counts, or reporting that explains any price level. It does not show whether any listed company will be added to either list. The Kalshi event has no supplied listed end time, and the contract end dates are closing terms, not announced event dates. Readers should check the source pages for the current status before relying on these figures.
References
- Kalshi: Which companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
- Polymarket: Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract family asks which companies will be added to the Chinese military companies list maintained under Section 1260H, a list the U.S. Department of Defense publishes. The sources describe two sets of event-linked contracts. A Kalshi event asks whether the Department of Defense will announce the inclusion of a named company on the unclassified §1260H list before July 1, 2027, and the contract resolves to Yes if that happens [1]. A Polymarket event asks whether a specified company will be added to the list by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET [2]. Each platform's contracts are scoped to one named company, so a single event contains several separate yes or no questions. The Polymarket rules define a qualifying addition as a case where a company that was not named on the list as of June 8, 2026 appears on an updated official list. The sources identify the official list as one published by the Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, or in an official announcement or Federal Register notice of addition [2]. The Polymarket rules also say that an addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify, and that an addition still qualifies even if it is later retracted or withdrawn [2]. Under that rule, the status of a company is determined by its presence on the list. If an addition is listed but its status is unenforced, the addition still counts [2]. The Kalshi rules include an early close condition. The market closes and expires early if the qualifying event occurs [1]. The Polymarket rules instead specify that the market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by the deadline [2]. The two platforms therefore have different rule wording, and each contract should be read on its own terms.
Historical Context
The Wikipedia entry on the China-United States trade war describes an economic conflict that has been ongoing since January 2018, when the first Trump administration began imposing tariffs and other trade barriers on China. The entry states that the two sides reached a phase-one agreement in January 2020, and that China failed to buy the additional imports specified in that agreement [4]. The sources supplied for this topic do not explain how the trade war relates to the Section 1260H list, so this background should be read as general context only and not as an explanation of the list or of any company's inclusion.
Why It Matters
These contracts measure whether a specified company will be added to a list of Chinese military companies identified under Section 1260H. The Kalshi contracts resolve on an announcement by the Department of Defense before July 1, 2027 [1]. The Polymarket contracts resolve on a qualifying addition that appears on an updated official list by June 30, 2027 [2]. The companies named in the saved contracts include Gotion High-Tech, Xiaomi, Moonshot AI, WuXi Biologics, DeepSeek and ByteDance on Kalshi [1], and Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance and Moonshot AI on Polymarket [2]. A company that appears on both platforms is covered by separate contracts with separate rules, so the two platforms' prices should not be treated as interchangeable.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a qualifying addition on the Polymarket contracts?
A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed on the list as of June 8, 2026 appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. The addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, or in an official announcement or Federal Register notice of addition [2].
Does adding a parent or subsidiary company count?
On the Polymarket contracts, the addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company qualifies [2]. The supplied Kalshi rule refers to the inclusion of the named entity itself [1].
What happens if a company is added and then removed?
The Polymarket rules say an addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn [2].
What does an early close mean on the Kalshi contracts?
The Kalshi rules state that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The saved Kalshi listing does not supply a listed end time, and the saved market end dates differ from the July 1, 2027 date in the contract rule. The sources do not explain that difference, so the contract rules should be checked directly.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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