GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?

Name: Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
End: 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.55K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?

Vol

$18.55K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.55K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.55K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?	Poly	46%
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Poly	31%
Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?	Poly	17%
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

46%

Top Probability

$18.55K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided b

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 13, 2026 (8 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided b

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $83.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.22)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $8.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics