Market snapshot: Sep 8, 2026, 9:02 PM UTC. This snapshot is older than six hours. Check the provider for current prices and availability.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner

Name: Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner
End: 2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$23.03K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner

Vol

$23.03K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $23.03K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.03K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?	Poly	99%
Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$23.03K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island. If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the re"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $31.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $15.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 8, 2026): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics