Name: South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner
End: 2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z

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South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $2.44K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.44K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	95%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	3%
Will the Reform Party (RP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	3%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	2%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

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95%

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$2.44K

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About This Event

At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market. This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026. Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the re

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 3, 2026 (48 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.

This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.

Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.

This market will resolve to the party that wins "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $31.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 7, 2026): Vol $615
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 7, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Reform Party (RP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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