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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner

Name: South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner
End: 2026-06-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$42.23K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner

Vol

$42.23K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $42.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $42.23K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	97%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	2%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	0%
Will the Reform Party (RP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$42.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market. This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026. Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the re

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Korea By-Elections: Party Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.

This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.

Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.

This market will resolve to the party that wins "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $42.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $37.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $16.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $776
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Reform Party (RP) win the most seats in South Korea’s 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $21.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics