Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Name: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.40M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.40M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.40M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Poly	41%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$6.40M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not cou

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not cou

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this marke"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.40M
* **Total Liquidity:** $434.5K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 14.73)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.40M
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 18h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

41¢

Polymarket

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)