Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 65% probability that the total number of TSA passengers screened on February 18, 2026, will fall between 2.2 million and 2.4 million. This price indicates traders see this outcome as the most likely scenario, but the 35% chance assigned to all other ranges combined shows significant residual uncertainty. The next closest bracket, 2.0 million to 2.2 million, trades at just 19%. Total market volume is $37,000, which is relatively thin and suggests the consensus could be vulnerable to new data.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

February 18, 2026, is a Wednesday. The primary factor shaping the prediction is the historical pattern of post-holiday travel. February 18 follows Presidents Day, a federal holiday observed on the third Monday of February. Travel data consistently shows a sharp decline in passenger volumes on the Tuesday and Wednesday immediately after a long holiday weekend as leisure travelers return home. The 2.2-2.4 million range aligns with typical mid-week, post-holiday throughput. For context, TSA screened 2.24 million passengers on the Wednesday after Presidents Day in 2024. Traders are pricing in a similar seasonal dip rather than an average mid-February weekday, which could see volumes closer to 2.5 million.

What Could Change These Odds

The market will resolve imminently upon the TSA's data release, leaving no time for further trading catalysts. However, the current odds could have been wrong for two specific reasons. A major winter storm disrupting travel across key hubs on the East Coast or Midwest could have suppressed numbers below the 2.2 million floor. Conversely, an unusually strong surge in last-minute leisure travel extending beyond the holiday weekend could have pushed volumes above 2.4 million. The thin market liquidity means these outlier scenarios were not heavily traded, concentrating volume in the expected seasonal outcome.

Background on TSA Throughput Data

The Transportation Security Administration's daily passenger throughput is a closely watched real-time indicator of U.S. travel demand and economic activity. It correlates strongly with airline revenue, hotel bookings, and consumer confidence. February is typically a lower-volume month, situated between the December holidays and spring break. The Presidents Day period often creates a short, predictable spike followed by a rapid drop-off, making it a frequent subject for prediction markets testing seasonal pattern recognition.