Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Michigan Senate Election: Genesee County Winner

Name: Michigan Senate Election: Genesee County Winner
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.27K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Michigan Senate Election: Genesee County Winner

Vol

$3.27K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will the Democrats win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democrats win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Poly	85%
Will the Republicans win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Poly	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$3.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will res

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Michigan Senate Election: Genesee County Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (24 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will res

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Genesee County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

The candidates will be primarily ranked by the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $42.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democrats win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republicans win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $974
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics