Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto
Will knots flip bitcoin core by ___?
Total Volume
$37.83K
Events
1
Markets
1
Will knots flip bitcoin core by ___?
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $37.83K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $37.83K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Will knots flip bitcoin core before 2027?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 20% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
20%
Top Probability
$37.83K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart set to “MTD.” Resolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes. A data point for a given day will be considered finalized
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Traders on prediction markets currently give this event about a 1 in 5 chance of happening. In simpler terms, they see it as fairly unlikely that Bitcoin Knots will have more active nodes than Bitcoin Core by the end of 2025. This shows a low level of confidence in a major shift in the foundational software running the Bitcoin network within that timeframe.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Bitcoin Core is the original and dominant software implementation for Bitcoin nodes. It is maintained by a large group of developers and is considered the standard. Bitcoin Knots is a less popular alternative that includes some additional features, like compatibility with certain privacy protocols, but it has a much smaller user base.
The low probability reflects two main realities. First, Bitcoin Core has a massive, long-established lead. Replacing it as the most common node software would require a coordinated migration of thousands of operators, which rarely happens without a major technical or philosophical crisis. Second, while some users prefer Knots for its specific features, there hasn't been a recent event compelling enough to drive a widespread switch. The network effect favoring Core is extremely strong.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
There is no single scheduled event that will decide this. Instead, it is a continuous measurement. The resolution source, Coin Dance, tracks node counts in real time. Observers can watch that chart for any sudden, sustained changes. A significant software vulnerability discovered in Bitcoin Core, or a major new feature released exclusively in Knots, could theoretically change the trajectory. However, such events are unpredictable. The main date that matters is the deadline itself: December 31, 2025.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets are generally reliable for forecasting events with clear, objective outcomes like this one. The low trading volume on this specific question, however, is a limitation. It means fewer people are putting money behind their opinions, which can make the odds less robust and more sensitive to small trades. For technical, niche topics within cryptocurrency, the collective intelligence is often informed but can be swayed by a dedicated few. The clear historical precedent of Bitcoin Core's dominance adds weight to the current low probability forecast.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign a low probability to Bitcoin Knots surpassing Bitcoin Core in node count by the end of 2025. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share trades around 20¢, implying roughly a 20% chance. This price indicates the market views a node count flip as unlikely in the near term. For context, the leading related market asking if it will happen before 2027 trades at the same 20% level, showing no increased confidence in the event occurring even with a later deadline.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The primary factor is Bitcoin Core's entrenched network dominance. Data from Coin.Dance shows Bitcoin Core consistently runs on over 90% of all reachable Bitcoin nodes, while Bitcoin Knots typically represents a fraction of a percent. Knots is a software fork of Core that includes privacy features like CoinJoin, but it has not achieved significant adoption among node operators. The market pricing reflects the immense gap in established infrastructure and developer mindshare. Core's position as the reference implementation, backed by the majority of developers and economic nodes, creates a powerful network effect that is difficult to challenge.
What Could Change These Odds
A shift in these odds would require a fundamental change in node operator incentives or a major controversy within the Bitcoin Core ecosystem. A significant technical flaw or a deeply unpopular update in Core could theoretically drive users to alternative implementations like Knots. However, no such catalyst is on the horizon. The more plausible path for increased "Yes" probability would be a concerted, well-funded campaign to deploy thousands of new Knots nodes, but even that would face the hurdle of matching Core's organic, global distribution. Monitoring node count trends on Coin.Dance for any sustained, exponential growth in Knots adoption is the clearest signal the current market consensus might be wrong.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.