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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with th
Prediction markets are pricing in a decisive advantage for the Democratic candidate in the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. On Polymarket, the contract "Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?" is trading at 93 cents, implying a 93% probability of a Democratic victory. This price suggests the market views the outcome as nearly certain, with only a 7% implied chance of an upset by a Republican or independent candidate. It is important to note that trading volume is relatively thin at approximately $5,000 across related markets, indicating lower liquidity and potentially higher volatility in these early odds.
Two primary factors are solidifying the market's high confidence in a Democratic win. First, Colorado's recent electoral history shows a strong and growing Democratic trend in statewide elections. The party has held the governorship since 2019 with Jared Polis, and Democrats have won every U.S. Senate race in the state since 2016. Second, the state's demographic shifts, particularly in the populous Denver metro area and along the Front Range, have created a durable Democratic base in statewide contests. The absence of a declared Republican challenger with significant name recognition or a clear path to moderate the party's brand in the state further cements the current favorite status.
The current 93% probability could shift significantly based on candidate developments and national political winds. The most immediate catalyst will be the official candidate fields for both parties, expected to solidify through primary elections in mid-2026. A surprise retirement by Governor Polis, who is term-limited, could introduce uncertainty if it leads to a divisive Democratic primary. For Republicans, nominating a moderate, well-funded candidate who can appeal to unaffiliated voters, a large bloc in Colorado, would be necessary to tighten the race. Additionally, a major shift in the national political environment by late 2026, perhaps driven by the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, could alter the competitiveness of this state-level race.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election, which will determine the state's chief executive for a four-year term beginning in January 2027. The market resolves based on which candidate receives the most votes in the November 2026 general election. Colorado's governorship is a powerful position, with the incumbent responsible for setting the state's budget, overseeing its executive agencies, and wielding significant veto power over legislation passed by the General Assembly. The election will be a major political event, testing the strength of both major parties in a state that has shifted from a classic swing state to one with a consistent Democratic lean in recent statewide elections, though Republicans remain competitive in certain regions and down-ballot races. Interest in this market stems from its role as a barometer for national political trends, the high-profile nature of the office, and the potential policy implications for Colorado on issues like energy, water management, housing, and taxation. The race is open as incumbent Democratic Governor Jared Polis is term-limited and cannot seek re-election, guaranteeing a competitive contest to succeed him.
Colorado's gubernatorial elections have undergone a significant political transformation over the past two decades. For much of the late 20th century, the office frequently changed partisan hands, with Democrats like Roy Romer (1987-1999) and Republicans like Bill Owens (1999-2007) both serving two terms. Owens was the first Republican in over two decades to be re-elected governor. This competitive era shifted following the 2010 election of Democrat John Hickenlooper, who was re-elected in 2014. His tenure marked the beginning of a sustained period of Democratic control of the governor's office. Jared Polis continued this trend, winning election in 2018 by a 10.7-point margin and re-election in 2022 by a commanding 19-point margin, one of the largest victories in state history for a gubernatorial candidate. The 2022 election also saw Republicans fail to win any statewide constitutional offices, highlighting the party's current challenges in Colorado. Historically, open-seat gubernatorial races in Colorado, like the one in 2018, tend to be more competitive than those with an incumbent. The last time an open seat did not result in a party change was in 2006, when Democrat Bill Ritter succeeded Republican Bill Owens, who was term-limited.
The outcome of the 2026 governor's race will have profound implications for Colorado's policy direction on critical issues. The governor appoints heads of major state agencies, shapes the regulatory environment for the state's significant energy and technology sectors, and proposes the annual budget. A change in party control could lead to reversals in Colorado's nation-leading climate policies, its approach to water conservation in the drought-stricken West, and its tax and spending priorities. Furthermore, the governor plays a key role in redistricting following the 2030 census, influencing Colorado's congressional and legislative maps for a decade. The race is also a critical test for the Colorado Republican Party, which has struggled in recent statewide elections. A strong performance or an upset win could revitalize the state GOP and provide a model for Republicans in other western states. Conversely, another decisive Democratic victory would solidify the party's dominance at the state level and could influence national political strategies heading into the 2028 presidential election.
As of late 2024, the 2026 gubernatorial race is in its earliest stages with no official candidates declared. Potential candidates from both parties are likely conducting private polling, consulting with donors, and gauging support. The Colorado Republican Party is engaged in internal debates about its future direction following consecutive heavy losses in statewide contests. For Democrats, the focus is on maintaining unity and selecting a nominee who can consolidate the coalition that has delivered consistent victories. The political landscape will be further shaped by the results of the November 2024 presidential and congressional elections, which will set the national mood heading into the 2026 cycle. Fundraising networks are beginning to activate, and political operatives are positioning themselves for what is expected to be a costly and highly watched campaign.
As of late 2024, no candidates have officially declared their candidacy for the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. The race is open because incumbent Governor Jared Polis is term-limited. Potential candidates frequently mentioned include Democratic Attorney General Phil Weiser and Republican former nominee Heidi Ganahl, but the field will not formally take shape until 2025.
The 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This is the same date as the national midterm elections for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. The party primaries to select nominees will be held earlier, likely in June of 2026.
No, Jared Polis cannot run for re-election as Colorado governor in 2026. Colorado state law limits governors to two consecutive four-year terms. Polis was first elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, making him ineligible to run again in 2026.
Colorado has an open primary system where unaffiliated voters, who make up nearly half the electorate, can participate. They receive both a Democratic and Republican primary ballot but may only return one to vote. This system gives unaffiliated voters significant influence in selecting party nominees, which shapes the general election matchup.
While the campaign has not begun, perennial key issues in Colorado include housing affordability and homelessness, water management and conservation, transportation and infrastructure, energy policy and the transition from fossil fuels, crime and public safety, and the state's tax structure. The specific emphasis will be shaped by events between now and 2026.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 93% |
 | Poly | 5% |
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