Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 21?
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11
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 21?
PM $0
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks what the lowest temperature will be in Chengdu on October 21, using a NOAA reading for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station. The rules state that the market "will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Oct '26" [1]. The resolution source is the lowest value under the "Temp" column, and values are measured to whole degrees Celsius [1].
The rules also set fallbacks. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If no data exists by that time, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not a record of how or when the market settled.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is dated 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:57:11.778Z [1]. These prices describe that saved moment only. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
The saved event contains 11 markets, and all of them were included. Several are priced at Yes 0.50 and No 0.50, covering "11°C or below" and "21°C or higher" [1]. The brackets for 12°C through 20°C are each priced at Yes 0.34 and No 0.66 [1]. Because these are separate contracts with different wording, their prices should not be averaged or read as one combined forecast. The Yes prices across the saved set add up to more than 1, so the set is not a complete probability distribution as quoted.
What remains uncertain
The sample covers one provider event on one platform, with no partial sampling noted [1]. The saved set does not establish that every possible real-world temperature outcome is listed. A price difference between two brackets is not an arbitrage opportunity, since the contracts differ in wording, settlement sources, and possible fallbacks.
The rules also allow a market to remain open for up to seven calendar days if the source publishes clearly erroneous data, and revisions are considered only until the first datapoint for the following date is published [1]. The evidence does not show whether any such correction occurred. It also does not explain why prices stood where they did at the observation time.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 21?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a daily temperature contract on Polymarket titled "Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 21?" It belongs to the Climate category and asks which temperature range will contain the lowest temperature recorded for 21 October 2026 at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station [1]. The contract is split into separate yes or no markets for individual temperature thresholds or brackets, such as whether the lowest temperature will be 11°C or below, 12°C, and so on up to 21°C or higher [1]. The resolution source is NOAA. The contract specifies the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on that day, using the station's time series page [1]. Temperatures are measured to whole degrees Celsius, so a reading is rounded to that precision for settlement [1]. If NOAA data for the observation date is not available by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used instead [1]. If no data for the observation date is available by that deadline, the contract resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The contract is set to resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1]. The listed end time in the provider record is 12:00 UTC on 21 October 2026 [1]. Revisions to recorded temperatures are considered only until the first data point for the following date is published. After that, later alterations are not considered [1]. If the resolution source publishes data that is clearly erroneous because of technical or operational error, or because of unauthorized interference, the market may stay open for up to seven calendar days from the original release, so a corrected value can be used if one is published in that window. If no correction appears, Polymarket may issue a clarification on whether the original value can be used [1]. The sample shown for this event covers all 11 saved markets for the event, with none omitted [1]. At the observation time recorded for this sample, the yes price for the 11°C or below and 21°C or higher markets was 0.5, while the yes price for each bracket from 12°C through 20°C was 0.34 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not show trading volume or the number of participants.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single observed minimum temperature at one airport station on one date, recorded to whole degrees Celsius from NOAA data [1]. Because each bracket is a separate market, the event as a whole offers a set of yes or no questions about the same underlying reading [1]. The resolution rules define exactly which data source counts, what happens if that source is missing, and when a value is treated as final, so the outcome depends on those procedural details as well as the weather itself [1]. Background on the location is limited to general descriptions of Chengdu as the capital of Sichuan province with a 2020 census population of 20,937,757 [2][3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which weather station determines the outcome?
The market uses the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, with NOAA as the primary resolution source [1].
What happens if NOAA data is missing?
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If no data is available for the observation date by that time, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
When does the market resolve?
It resolves once the first data point for the following date is published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, whichever comes first [1].
Can a recorded temperature be revised after resolution?
Revisions are considered until the first data point for the following date is published. After that, alterations are not considered [1]. If the source publishes clearly erroneous data, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days from the original release to allow a correction [1].
Does a price of 0.34 mean a 34 percent chance?
The provider record shows prices as snapshots at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed odds [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.