Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Total Volume

$28.19K

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Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $28.19K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $28.19K

100%

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Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?	Kalshi	27%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

27%

Top Probability

$28.19K

Volume

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About This Event

In 2026 If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January and 25 basis points in March would not be sufficient to resolve this market. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For example, this market will resolve to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points during one day, non-scheduled meetings are included. The Federal Res"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $28.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.71M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $28.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

27¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/mjr3Wq" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?"></iframe>

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Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

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Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)