Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETOther

Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?

Name: Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?
End: 2027-01-08T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$45.50K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?

Vol

$45.50K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $45.50K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $45.50K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	83%
Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	13%
Will Hong Kong have 210mm or more of precipitation in October?	Poly	5%
Will Hong Kong have between 20-40mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	1%
Will Hong Kong have between 40-50mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	1%
Will Hong Kong have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	0%
Will Hong Kong have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

Top Probability

$45.50K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?
**Category:** Other | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 8, 2027 (89 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this m"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $45.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hong Kong have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Hong Kong have between 20-40mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Hong Kong have between 40-50mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Hong Kong have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $20.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $10.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Hong Kong have 210mm or more of precipitation in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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