Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

Name: Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?
End: 2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.40M

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Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

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Polymarket

markets · $2.40M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.40M

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?	Poly	100%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$2.40M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if António José Seguro receives the highest number of valid votes in the second round of this election in each electoral district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. For the purpose of this market, all of Portugal's districts include Aveiro, Azore

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if António José Seguro receives the highest number of valid votes in the second round of this election in each electoral district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.

For the purpose of this market, all of Portugal's districts include Aveiro, Azore

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if António José Seguro receives the highest number of valid votes in the second round of this election in each electoral district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ""

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.40M
* **Total Liquidity:** $88.4K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 27.14)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2026): Vol $2.40M
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

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Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

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Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)