This prediction market focuses on the location of the next formal diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran. The market will resolve based on the country where authorized government representatives from both nations convene to discuss bilateral relations before the deadline of June 30, 2026. Such meetings are rare and significant, as the two countries have no formal diplomatic relations and typically communicate through intermediaries or in multilateral settings. The location itself often carries symbolic weight and can signal the level of diplomatic engagement, the involvement of third-party mediators, or the specific agenda of the talks. Interest in this topic stems from the ongoing tensions over Iran's nuclear program, regional conflicts, and the potential for renewed negotiations following the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The outcome of this market provides a measurable indicator of diplomatic momentum and the willingness of both governments to engage directly. Recent years have seen meetings occur in neutral locations like Vienna, Austria, or Doha, Qatar, under the auspices of European powers. The choice of venue reflects practical considerations like security and logistics, as well as political calculations about which host can best facilitate dialogue.

Historical Context

Direct diplomatic meetings between the U.S. and Iran have been exceptionally rare since the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. For decades, communication occurred through Swiss intermediaries or in multilateral forums. A significant shift occurred in 2013, when U.S. and Iranian officials held direct, secret bilateral talks in Muscat, Oman. These talks, facilitated by Omani Sultan Qaboos bin Said, paved the way for the formal negotiations that produced the 2015 JCPOA. The primary negotiations for the JCPOA took place from 2013 to 2015, with major rounds held in Geneva, Switzerland, and Vienna, Austria. Vienna emerged as the most consistent venue, hosting the final marathon talks and subsequently the meetings of the Joint Commission established to oversee the deal's implementation. After the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 under President Donald Trump, diplomacy collapsed. Efforts to revive the deal under President Joe Biden have centered on indirect 'proximity talks' in Vienna from April 2021 onward, where U.S. and Iranian envoys were in the same city but met separately with European coordinators. The historical pattern shows a strong preference for neutral European or Gulf state capitals with established diplomatic security infrastructure.

Frequently Asked Questions