Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will anyone win the Vermont Governor election outright?

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Will anyone win the Vermont Governor election outright?

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Price Spread

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1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will anyone win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial general election in the first round?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will anyone win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial general election in the first round?	Kalshi	54%

AI Analysis

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54%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

Nov 3, 2026 If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. A candidate wins in the first round by receiving a majority of the votes counted for Governor; blank ballots are not counted. If no candidate does, the General Assembly elects the Governor, which do

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will anyone win the Vermont Governor election outright?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 3, 2026

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. A candidate wins in the first round by receiving a majority of the votes counted for Governor; blank ballots are not counted. If no candidate does, the General Assembly elects the Governor, which do

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will anyone win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial general election in the first round?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections