Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech
Liftoff Mobile IPO Closing Market Cap
Total Volume
$49.73K
Events
1
Markets
8
Liftoff Mobile IPO Closing Market Cap
Vol
$49.73K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
8
$49.73K
1
8
$49.73K
1
8
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve based on Liftoff Mobile’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on February 6, 2026 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before April 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by th
Prediction markets currently give Liftoff Mobile roughly a 3 in 4 chance of not going public before April 2026. In simpler terms, traders collectively believe it is significantly more likely that the IPO will be delayed or canceled than that it will happen on schedule next month. This is a high level of confidence for a prediction market, especially with tens of thousands of dollars already wagered on the outcome.
Several factors are likely shaping this pessimistic view. First, the broader market for new tech listings has been quiet for years. Many companies that filed to go public in 2021 and 2022 later postponed their plans due to poor market conditions, and that cautious environment persists. Second, there is virtually no public news or regulatory filings about Liftoff Mobile's upcoming IPO, which is unusual for a deal supposedly weeks away. Typically, a company on the verge of pricing would have detailed its financials and business model in public documents. The lack of this basic information suggests the timeline is unrealistic. Finally, Liftoff Mobile itself is not a widely recognized name, which may lead traders to doubt its ability to attract enough investor interest to launch successfully in the current climate.
The main date to watch is the stated IPO pricing date of February 6, 2026. If the company does not price its shares that day, a delay is almost certain. The absolute deadline for this market is March 31, 2026. Any official announcement from Liftoff Mobile, its bankers, or a regulatory body like the SEC would be a major signal. Specifically, watch for a public filing of an S-1 registration statement, which is the formal document that kicks off the IPO process. Without that filing appearing soon, the "no IPO" prediction will likely seem even more accurate.
Prediction markets have a solid track record aggregating crowd wisdom on binary, date-specific events like this. They often incorporate subtle signals, like the absence of expected news, faster than traditional media. However, they can be wrong, especially for niche markets with lower trading volume. This market has a moderate amount of money behind it, which suggests considered opinion rather than pure speculation. The biggest limitation is that an unexpected last-minute announcement could rapidly shift the odds, though that appears to be what the market is betting against.
Prediction markets currently assign a 77% probability that Liftoff Mobile will not complete its initial public offering before April 2026. This price, trading at 77¢ for the "No" outcome on Polymarket, indicates strong skepticism that the scheduled February 2026 IPO will proceed. With only $50,000 in total volume spread across eight related markets, liquidity is thin. This low volume suggests the consensus is based on limited trading activity, which can make prices more volatile to new information.
The primary factor is the significant gap between the announced IPO date and current market conditions. Liftoff Mobile, a mobile marketing and retargeting platform, operates in a sector that has seen weak public market reception for ad-tech companies since 2022. Historical patterns show that companies which file for IPOs far in advance, especially in volatile sectors, frequently postpone or withdraw their plans. The 77% "No" bet reflects a belief that the challenging environment for tech IPOs will persist, making the stated timeline unrealistic. The market is effectively pricing in a high likelihood of delay or cancellation.
The odds will shift with any official corporate announcement from Liftoff Mobile or its underwriters regarding the IPO's status. A firm commitment to pricing on February 6, 2026, with released financials and roadshow details, would likely cause the "No" probability to fall sharply. Conversely, any rumor or news of management changes, poor financial performance in pre-IPO disclosures, or a broader market downturn would solidify the current pessimistic view. The next concrete catalyst is the company's action as the February date approaches; silence or ambiguity will be interpreted as confirmation of a delay.
Liftoff Mobile is known for its Vungle ad network, a platform for in-app advertising and user acquisition. The company merged with Vungle in 2021 to create a larger mobile marketing entity. The ad-tech industry has struggled with valuation pressures, privacy changes like Apple's App Tracking Transparency, and investor preference for profitable, established tech over growth-stage advertising firms. This context explains market skepticism. An IPO would require demonstrating sustainable profitability and growth in a sector many public investors currently avoid.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the market capitalization of Liftoff Mobile at the close of its first day of public trading, should its planned initial public offering (IPO) proceed. Market capitalization is a fundamental valuation metric, calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by its current share price. The market will resolve to a specific dollar value based on that closing price on the IPO day. If the IPO does not occur by March 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'No IPO before April 2026.' Liftoff Mobile is a mobile marketing and measurement platform that helps app developers acquire and retain users. The company filed confidentially for an IPO in late 2025, signaling its intent to go public amid a recovering market for technology listings. Interest in this event stems from its potential to gauge investor appetite for ad-tech and mobile performance marketing companies after a period of volatility. The closing market cap will serve as a direct verdict on Liftoff Mobile's valuation narrative, its competitive position against rivals like AppLovin and Unity, and the broader health of its sector.
Liftoff Mobile's path to an IPO follows a decade of consolidation in the mobile advertising industry. The company was founded in 2012, initially focusing on cost-per-install advertising for mobile apps. A significant turning point was its 2019 merger with Vungle, a mobile video advertising platform. This merger created a combined entity with broader reach, merging Liftoff's performance marketing expertise with Vungle's in-app video ad network. The combined company continued to operate under the Liftoff and Vungle brands but was structured under a single corporate umbrella, Liftoff Mobile Inc. This move was a response to competitive pressure from larger platforms like Google and Facebook, now Meta, and was aimed at achieving the scale necessary for a future public listing. The IPO window for ad-tech companies has been historically volatile. Successful IPOs like Trade Desk in 2016 contrast with struggles of others like Rubicon Project. The sector saw renewed interest in 2020-2021, followed by a sharp downturn in 2022-2023 as interest rates rose and digital ad spending slowed. Liftoff's planned 2026 debut would test whether investor confidence in disciplined, profitable ad-tech firms has returned.
The outcome of Liftoff Mobile's IPO has implications for multiple stakeholders. For the venture capital and private equity ecosystem, a successful offering at a strong valuation would provide a significant return on investment and signal that the late-stage tech IPO market is reopening for companies outside of artificial intelligence. This could encourage other ad-tech and marketing software firms to pursue public listings. For the mobile app economy, Liftoff's market cap reflects investor belief in the long-term growth of mobile advertising spend and the health of the developer ecosystem that relies on these tools for user growth. A low valuation could indicate concerns about market saturation or the impact of privacy changes like Apple's App Tracking Transparency. Employees with equity compensation are directly affected, as the market cap determines the tangible value of their stock options or grants. A higher valuation translates to greater personal wealth and retention power for the company.
As of late 2025, Liftoff Mobile has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This is a standard procedure that allows the company to begin the review process with regulators without immediately making its financial details public. Financial news outlets, including Bloomberg and Reuters, have reported that the company is working with Goldman Sachs and other banks on the offering. The specific number of shares to be sold and the target price range have not been disclosed. The technology IPO market has shown tentative signs of recovery in late 2025 after a prolonged quiet period, but conditions remain sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates.
Market cap at IPO closing is calculated using the closing share price on the first day of trading, not the initial offering price set by the underwriters. This closing price is multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding immediately after the IPO, including all shares held by founders, investors, and employees, not just the newly issued shares sold to the public.
According to the prediction market's resolution rules, if Liftoff Mobile has not completed its initial public offering by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on March 31, 2026, the market will resolve to the outcome 'No IPO before April 2026.' This would occur even if the company announces an IPO date for April 2026 or later.
Liftoff's primary public competitors are AppLovin and Unity. In the broader mobile marketing space, it also competes with giants like Google's Google Ads and Meta's Facebook Ads, as well as other performance marketing platforms and ad networks focused on mobile apps.
A confidential filing with the SEC, allowed under the JOBS Act for companies with less than $1.07 billion in revenue, lets a company begin the regulatory review process privately. The company's financial statements and business details become public only when it files its official, non-confidential registration statement, typically a few weeks before the IPO roadshow begins.
Key factors include overall stock market sentiment, investor demand during the roadshow, the company's final pricing relative to its initial range, the financial performance of comparable companies like AppLovin on that day, and any major news about the mobile advertising industry or the broader economy.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
8 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 77% |
| Poly | 13% |
| Poly | 13% |
| Poly | 13% |
| Poly | 13% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 4% |
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