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Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats will win their primaries?

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How many candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats will win their primaries?

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Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?	Kalshi	98%
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?	Kalshi	91%
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 5 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?	Kalshi	70%
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?	Kalshi	53%
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?	Kalshi	16%

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primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 If the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The endorsement must occur before the candidate wins the primary.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats will win their primaries?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026

If the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The endorsement must occur before the candidate wins the primary.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 is above 7, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The endorsement must occur before the candidate wins the primary."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 5 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats will win their primaries?

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KALSHI

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

If the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 is above 3, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The endorsement must occur before the candidate wins the primary.

KALSHI

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

If the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 is above 4, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The endorsement must occur before the candidate wins the primary.

KALSHI

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 5 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.5¢No 30.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 5 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

If the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 is above 5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The endorsement must occur before the candidate wins the primary.

KALSHI

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 52.5¢No 47.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

If the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 is above 6, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The endorsement must occur before the candidate wins the primary.

KALSHI

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

If the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 is above 7, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The endorsement must occur before the candidate wins the primary.

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Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

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Events (1)

How many candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats will win their primaries?

Markets (5)

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 5 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 5 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

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Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats will win their primaries?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 3 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 5 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 5 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?

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