March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

Name: March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?
End: 2026-01-28T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.77K

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March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.77K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.77K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?	Poly	100%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$9.77K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to “No change” if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "No change" is the favorite in the market "Fed decision in March?" (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-march-885) between 2 PM and 6 PM ET on January 28, 2026. This market will resolve to “25 bps decrease" if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "25 bps decrease" is the favorite during that period. This market will resolve to whichever of "No change" or "25 bps decrease" is ahead in more in

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 28, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “No change” if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "No change" is the favorite in the market "Fed decision in March?" (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-march-885) between 2 PM and 6 PM ET on January 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to “25 bps decrease" if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "25 bps decrease" is the favorite during that period.

This market will resolve to whichever of  "No change" or "25 bps decrease" is ahead in more in

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “No change” if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "No change" is the favorite in the market "Fed decision in March?" (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-march-885) between 2 PM and 6 PM ET on January 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to “25 bps decrea"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.41)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 28, 2026): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [No change: 99.9% (0.0%)] | [25 bps decrease: 0.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

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March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

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March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)