2026 Oscar for Best International Feature Film? | PredictPedia

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16 markets tracked

Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	43%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	31%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	19%
Will No Other Choice win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	3%
Will Kokuho win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	3%
Will Sirât win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will The Voice of Hind Rajab win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tie win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Sound of Falling win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will The President’s Cake win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Palestine 36 win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Left-Handed Girl win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Late Shift win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Homebound win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Belén win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will All That’s Left of You win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Oscar for Best International Feature Film?
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X has won Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If The Voice of Hind Rajab has won Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $31.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.45M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will The Voice of Hind Rajab win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $612
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tie win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Sound of Falling win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Sirât win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will The President’s Cake win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $822
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Palestine 36 win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $511
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will No Other Choice win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Left-Handed Girl win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $233
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Late Shift win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Kokuho win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will It Was Just an Accident win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Homebound win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Belén win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will All That’s Left of You win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

6¢

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2026 Oscar for Best International Feature Film?

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Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

2026 Oscar for Best International Feature Film?

Markets (16)

Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will It Was Just an Accident win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will It Was Just an Accident win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will No Other Choice win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will No Other Choice win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Kokuho win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Kokuho win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

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Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2026 Oscar for Best International Feature Film?

Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will It Was Just an Accident win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will It Was Just an Accident win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will No Other Choice win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will No Other Choice win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Kokuho win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

Will Kokuho win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars?

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