Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

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$8.96K

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When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

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$8.96K

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $8.96K

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0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $8.96K

100%

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5 markets tracked

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?	Kalshi	73%
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	56%
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?	Kalshi	35%
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

73%

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$8.96K

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About This Event

Before 2028 If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either: X complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as originally formulated by the Clay Mathematics Institute is published in a reputable peer-reviewed mathematics or scientific journal. CMI or another recognized academic governing or

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either: X complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as originally formulated by the Clay Mathematics Institute is published in a reputable peer-reviewed mathematics or scientific journal. CMI or another recognized academic governing or

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either:

A complete proof, disproof, or counterexa"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2028): Vol $315
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2027): Vol $269
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 7, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

Volume$8.96K

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

KALSHITech

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexa

KALSHI

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.0¢No 44.0¢

KALSHITech

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027?

If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexa

KALSHI

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢

KALSHITech

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexa

KALSHI

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

KALSHITech

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026?

If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexa

KALSHI

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHITech

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Nov 1, 2026?

If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexa

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Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

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When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

Markets (5)

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Nov 1, 2026?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Nov 1, 2026?

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Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Nov 1, 2026?

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Nov 1, 2026?

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