BNB Up or Down - October 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the BNB price over a five-minute window. The title gives the window as "October 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET" [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T03:50:00.000Z [1]. That matches the 11:50PM ET end in the title, but the rules do not describe how the outcome was settled, and the evidence does not include a resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-31T03:58:57.947Z [1]. The observation was taken before the listed end time, and the provider status at that point was "active" [1]. This is a past snapshot. It does not show whether the market is open, closed, or resolved at the time you read this.
The snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are prices from one observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this record. No volume or trader count is supplied, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each side.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, with no partial sampling [1]. Because only this pair of outcomes appears, there is no ranking or comparison to other contracts. Other BNB windows or other platforms should not be compared to this price without matching the exact window, reference price, and listed end time.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the actual resolution, the price path during the window, or any reason the prices were at this level. It also does not show whether the TWAP ended above or below the starting price. Readers comparing this contract with another should check each contract's rules, end time, and observation time first. Differences in wording or listed close times can make prices non-comparable even when the asset is the same.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-interval price contract on BNB, listed on Polymarket under the title "BNB Up or Down - October 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET" in the crypto category [1]. The market asks whether the price of BNB over a specified time range ends up or down compared with where it started. Its two outcomes are labeled "Up" and "Down" [1]. The contract is decided by a time-weighted average price rather than a single price at one moment. Under the listed rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. Anyone reading the contract should therefore look at that specific data feed, not at general exchange quotes, when considering how it would settle. The listed end time is 03:50 UTC on October 31, 2026 [1]. The title gives the window in Eastern Time. The saved provider data was observed at 03:00:05 UTC and retrieved at 03:58:58 UTC. At retrieval, the provider recorded the market's status as active. The listed end time is a rule setting for when the window closes, not a record that the outcome has been determined. The supplied evidence does not show a resolved outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over a five-minute window, as defined by Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. Because it compares the time-weighted average over the window with the price at the start, the result depends on the average over the interval and not only on the closing price [1]. The listed prices in the snapshot are observations at one point in time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the supplied evidence does not show trading volume or the number of participants.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract measure?
It measures whether the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, using Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1].
What outcome resolves the market as Up?
The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window [1].
Does the contract use exchange spot prices?
No. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to the Chainlink TWAP data stream for BNB/USD and not any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the window close?
The listed end time is 03:50 UTC on October 31, 2026, which corresponds to the 11:50PM ET end of the title's window [1].
Does the saved snapshot show the final result?
No. At retrieval the provider recorded the status as active, and the supplied evidence does not record a resolved outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.