TX-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $20.1K
1
9
TX-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $20.1K
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 10-15% at 33%.
Polymarket
- Republican 10-15%33%
- Republican 5-10%29.8%
- Republican 15-20%17%
- Republican 35%+7.9%
- Republican 20-25%4.2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $20.1K
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 TX-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These contracts resolve on the margin of victory in the 2026 TX-03 House election, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. The source describes the election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The rules also say that if the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market "will resolve to 'Other'" [1]. Ties and boundary values follow specific rules. If a reported value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1].
Party wording matters. The source says candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and that "Independent candidates will not represent options for either party" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is the provider's listed close time, not a result, and the rules tie resolution to the official certified count.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-18T06:15:09.447Z. These prices describe that moment only and may not reflect current trading.
The saved sample includes nine Republican margin brackets and one Democratic win contract, with all saved markets included and no partial sample flag [1]. Among the Republican margin brackets, the highest Yes price is for the 10% to 15% bracket at 0.305, followed by 5% to 10% at 0.266 and 15% to 20% at 0.17 [1]. The lowest Yes price in the margin group is 0.0335 for the 20% to 25% bracket [1]. The Democratic win contract shows a Yes price of 0.011 [1].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across the Republican margin brackets sum to about 1.03, so they should not be read as a complete, normalized distribution. The Democratic win contract asks a different question and should not be combined with the margin brackets.
What remains uncertain
The source does not explain why any price is where it is, and this analysis does not attempt to do so. The volume figures and trader counts are not included in the excerpt, so they cannot be used to judge liquidity or consensus. The sample is limited to one provider event, and the source states that the listing "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Any difference between this contract and a contract on another platform may reflect different wording, close times, or tiebreak rules, so prices should not be compared as if they were identical outcomes.
References
- Polymarket: TX-03 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract belongs to a PredictPedia event on the margin of victory in the 2026 election for Texas's 3rd congressional district, a U.S. House seat. The contract does not ask only who wins. It asks by how many percentage points the top two candidates are separated. The contract states that the margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The contract sets the party options in a specific way. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract says the name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the party's replacement nominee [1]. The event is organized as a set of brackets. The contract explains that if the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The saved event includes a separate contract on whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the seat, alongside several Republican-margin brackets from 0 to 5 percent through 35 percent or more [1]. Each bracket is its own contract, so the ladder should be read as a set of separate yes or no questions rather than a single probability distribution. The contract states that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. That is an expected date stated in the contract rules, not a confirmed record of events. The listed end time for the contracts is November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. A listed end time is when trading closes in the saved record. It is not the same as when the outcome is determined. Resolution depends on official results. The primary resolution source is the official result of the 2026 TX-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority that certifies results, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The market resolves based on the official vote count once it has been made official [1]. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is made official [1].
Historical Context
The 2026 election is one of the Texas U.S. House elections that will take place on November 3, 2026, covering all thirty-eight of the state's congressional districts. The primary elections took place on March 3, 2026, with runoffs held on May 26 in races where no candidate received over 50 percent in a primary [2]. The 2024 Texas House elections were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the state's thirty-eight representatives, and they coincided with the 2024 presidential election. Their primaries took place on March 5, 2024 [3]. These are historical and background facts from Wikipedia pages, not a current report on the 2026 race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the gap between the two leading vote shares, not simply which party wins. Because the margin is computed from percentages of all valid votes cast, the resolution depends on the official count rather than on early or unofficial tallies [1]. Ties and near-boundary results also have specific rules. If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the contract resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If a tie occurs between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate applies. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, the contract resolves to "Other" [1]. The contract also says that if the election result is not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Does the contract cover only the Republican and Democratic nominees?
The contract defines the Democrat and Republican options as the nominees of those parties. Independent candidates do not represent either party option [1].
What happens if a result falls exactly between two brackets?
The contract states that the market resolves to the higher margin bracket in that case [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the contract resolves to "Other" [1].
Does a recount affect resolution?
If a recount starts before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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