2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Loyola Chicago at Dayton Winner? (Dayton) | Kalshi | 91% |
Loyola Chicago at Dayton Winner? (Loyola Chicago) | Kalshi | 10% |
$1.43K
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
LCHI at DAY (Jan 16) If X wins the Loyola Chicago at Dayton men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the team who wins the Loyola Chicago at Dayton men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 16, 2026. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished, within two weeks. If the cancelled game is not played or is rescheduled f
The prediction market is pricing in a dominant 91% probability that the Dayton Flyers will defeat the Loyola Chicago Ramblers in their scheduled men's college basketball game. This price, trading at 91 cents on Kalshi, indicates the market views a Dayton victory as nearly certain. With only $1,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is currently thin, meaning this high-confidence price could be more sensitive to new information or trading activity.
Two primary factors explain the lopsided odds. First, the substantial talent and performance gap between the teams. The Dayton Flyers, led by star forward DaRon Holmes II, are consistently a top-tier team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and a perennial NCAA Tournament contender. Loyola Chicago, while having a strong history, is in a rebuilding phase within the conference and lacks the same level of elite talent and depth. Second, the home court advantage at the University of Dayton Arena is a significant force multiplier. The Flyers boast one of the most formidable home environments in college basketball, making a road victory for the Ramblers an exceptionally tall order.
The primary catalyst that could shift these odds would be a major injury or absence report for Dayton, specifically concerning a player like DaRon Holmes II. An announcement of his unavailability would immediately make the market more competitive. Conversely, the odds could solidify further if Loyola Chicago suffers a key injury or enters the game on a significant losing streak. While the game is not until January 2026, roster movements via the transfer portal in the upcoming offseason will be a critical period to watch, as either team's composition could change materially before the contest.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of a men's college basketball game between Loyola University Chicago (Loyola Chicago) and the University of Dayton (Dayton), originally scheduled for January 16, 2026. The market resolves based on which team wins that specific contest. The game is part of the Atlantic 10 Conference (A-10) regular season schedule, a key determinant for seeding in the conference tournament and potential qualification for the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament, commonly known as March Madness. The market includes provisions for postponement, specifying it will remain open and resolve based on a rescheduled game played within two weeks of the original date, but will resolve as invalid if the game is cancelled or rescheduled beyond that window. This creates a conditional contract tied to a specific athletic event with defined contingency rules. Interest in this market stems from several factors, including the competitive rivalry between the two programs, their historical success in the A-10 and NCAA tournaments, and the broader betting and prediction market ecosystem surrounding college basketball. The outcome has implications for conference standings, team rankings, and fan engagement. The market allows participants to speculate on the game's result based on team performance, player matchups, coaching strategies, and home-court advantage, with Dayton typically hosting the game at the UD Arena, one of the nation's premier college basketball venues.
The Loyola Chicago-Dayton rivalry is relatively new in the conference landscape but has quickly gained intensity. Loyola Chicago joined the Atlantic 10 Conference on July 1, 2022, after moving from the Missouri Valley Conference, where it had notable success, including a Final Four appearance in 2018. Dayton has been a longstanding A-10 power since joining in 1995, with a rich basketball tradition and consistent NCAA Tournament bids. The first meeting between the two as A-10 foes occurred on January 11, 2023, a game Dayton won 78-64 at home. The 2024 regular season series was split, with each team winning on its home court, highlighting the competitive balance and importance of home-court advantage. Historically, Dayton holds a significant home-court edge at the 13,407-seat UD Arena, which has ranked among the top venues in the country for college basketball attendance for decades. The scheduling of this game for January places it in the heart of the conference season, where outcomes heavily influence seeding for the A-10 Tournament in March, an event where both teams have championship aspirations. Past precedents for game postponements in the A-10, such as those during the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020-2021 season, established protocols for rescheduling that inform the market's contingency rules.
Beyond the immediate game result, this market reflects the growing intersection of sports, finance, and data analytics. Prediction markets on athletic events provide real-time sentiment indicators on team performance, aggregating information from a dispersed pool of participants. For the universities involved, the game's outcome impacts national perception, recruiting efforts, and potential revenue from postseason play. An NCAA Tournament berth, which conference performance influences, is worth millions of dollars in media rights distribution to the school and its conference. For the local economies of Chicago and Dayton, successful basketball seasons drive merchandise sales, game-day spending, and alumni engagement. The market also matters for regulatory discussions surrounding sports betting and prediction markets, as it represents a specific, conditional contract whose resolution depends on both athletic competition and administrative decisions regarding scheduling. It serves as a microcosm of how event-driven contracts are structured in an era of increased sports wagering legalization.
As of late 2024, the specific rosters for the January 2026 game are not finalized, as they depend on player recruitment, transfers, and potential early entries into the NBA draft. Both programs are engaged in offseason preparations for the 2024-2025 season, which will set the trajectory for the following year. The Atlantic 10 Conference has likely finalized its master schedule for the 2025-2026 season, confirming the January 16, 2026 date for this contest. The market is open for trading based on projections of team strength, coaching stability, and historical trends. The most recent competitive data point is the 2023-2024 season series split, indicating a closely matched rivalry.
According to the market description, if the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and will resolve based on the result of the rescheduled game, provided it is played within two weeks of the original January 16, 2026 date. If rescheduled beyond that two-week window, the market resolves as invalid.
The game is scheduled to be played at the University of Dayton Arena (UD Arena) in Dayton, Ohio. This is Dayton's home court, known for its large, passionate crowds and significant home-court advantage.
Broadcast details for the specific 2026 game will be announced closer to the date by the Atlantic 10 Conference and its media partners, which include networks like ESPN, CBS Sports Network, and NBC Sports. Games are typically televised or available via streaming services.
The series intensified when Loyola Chicago joined the Atlantic 10 Conference in 2022. As of the 2023-2024 season, Dayton leads the series 3-1 in the A-10 era, with each team protecting its home court in the 2024 season split.
Games between top-tier Atlantic 10 teams like Dayton and Loyola Chicago are considered Quadrant 1 opportunities by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. A win significantly boosts a team's tournament resume, while a loss can damage its chances for an at-large bid.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/nBR610" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Loyola Chicago at Dayton"></iframe>